Commodity Blog

Archive for January, 2010

Wheat prices dropped on expectation that China’s lending limits will slow economic growth and cause decline in demand for U.S. grains. Wheat fell 8 percent this month as pace of an increase in weekly U.S. exports is not enough to outweigh growing global stockpiles. March futures for wheat delivery slid $0.03 (0.6 percent) to $4.9525 per bushel as of 10:16 on CBoT.

Corn slid on speculation that record U.S. production will exceed world demand as China are going to slow economic growth. Analysts forecast record global production, resulting in ample supplies for producers of sweeteners, ethanol and livestock feed. March futures for corn delivery dropped $0.03 (0.8 percent) to $3.6475 per bushel by 10:23 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Sugar went down in New York as the record prices since 1981 drove away buyers from the commodity. Futures reached $0.301 per pound yesterday, the highest level in 29 years. March futures for raw-sugar delivery declined $0.0009 (0.3 percent) to $0.2971 per pound at 10:26 on ICE.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 17:19 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $73.36
Gold — $1,098.38
Silver — $16.80
Palladium — $426.50
Platinum — $1,524.04
Copper — $7,361.00
Aluminum — $2,220.00
Nickel — $18.150.00
Zinc — $2,314.00
Cocoa — $3,350.00
Sugar — $29.40
Corn — $362.25
Soybean — $941.25

Gold prices rose on expectation that the dollar will drop, spurring the demand for the precious metal as an inflation hedge. The U.S currency little changed versus a basket of six major currencies since it reached a five-month record on January 21st. Last week gold slid 3.6 percent, encouraging some investors to buy the commodity. February futures for gold delivery gained $6 (0.6 percent) to $1,095.70 per ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit.

Wheat futures tumbled in Chicago on speculation that growing global stockpiles will surpass demand for the grain. Analyst predict that global inventories may jump 19 percent to 195.6 million metric tons by the end of the marketing year on May 31st. Consumption is predicted to increase 0.7 percent to 644.5 million tons. December futures for wheat delivery dropped $0.0025 to $4.9825 per bushel on CBoT.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 20:50 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $73.68
Gold — $1,096.55
Silver — $17.11
Palladium — $441.00
Platinum — $1,549.43
Copper — $7,455.00
Aluminum — $2,241.00
Nickel — $18.190.00
Zinc — $2,319.00
Cocoa — $3,396.00
Sugar — $29.72
Corn — $368.50
Soybean — $940.75

The author of this video approaches with to the gold and USD analysis with the help of Elliott Waves, Fibonacci retracements and the average lifespan of the gold cycles. According to this technical analysis the gold can retrace at least to $750/ounce as the bullish series of Elliott Waves are over. In case the the widening channel is broken on the gold chart, the commodity may go down to the early 2000′s levels. Meanwhile the dollar will probably continue to trade inversely to the gold, making it a good indicator for the commodity markets. Watch the video for the charts and more interesting details:

The technical analysis, that includes the indicators’ data and major pivot points for Brent Oil, Gold, Silver and Copper as traded on spot market as of January 23rd 2010:

Crude oil tumbled to the lowest in a month in New York on speculation that China will raise interest rates and as equities slid after U.S. President proposed restrictions on risk-taking at financial institutions. Oil also slid this week as the dollar rose, curbing the demand for commodities as an inflation hedge and investor confidence decreased on declines in equity markets.

Fuel consumption in the U.S. fell 1.8 percent in the past four weeks compared to a previous year. Refineries ran at 78.4 percent of capacity in the U.S. last week, the lowest rate since 1989, barring the Atlantic hurricane season. Gasoline stockpiles rose 3.95 million barrels to 227.4 million last week, the record level since March 2008.

March delivery for crude oil dropped $1.17 (1.5 percent) to $74.91 per barrel by 10:15 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Some analysts think that there shouldn’t be any significant changes in the market in the next few days after decline. But there is probability that crude oil may decline next week as U.S. fuel consumption falls and refineries idle units.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 15:35 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $73.34
Gold — $1,085.43
Silver — $16.87
Palladium — $427.00
Platinum — $1,562.17
Copper — $7,273.00
Aluminum — $2,210.00
Nickel — $18.205.00
Zinc — $2,295.00
Cocoa — $3,378.00
Sugar — $28.65
Corn — $369.50
Soybean — $954.75

Cocoa rose to a highest level in 21 years in London on speculation that demand will be boosted by a rebounding global economic. Restocking is taking place as consumer confidence returns and business conditions improve. Cocoa consumption jumped 0.6 percent in Europe in the fourth quarter. March delivery for cocoa rose 1 percent to $3,770 per metric ton on Liffe today.

Copper prices tumbled to the four-week low as the rising dollar cut buying of commodities as an inflation hedge and a decline in equity markets curbed demand outlook. Yet some analysts think that the outlook for copper over the longer term is quite positive as demand rises in Asia, including China. March futures for copper delivery dropped $0.06 (1.8 percent) to $3.295 per pound on NYMEX.

Soybeans rose on expectations that demand from China will rebound after prices from the U.S. fell 9.4 percent this month. China’s demand for soybeans grown in the U.S. to produce cooking oil and livestock feed rose as drought harmed crops in South America last year. March futures for soybean delivery gained $0.04 (0.4 percent) to $9.54 per bushel on CBoT.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 19:47 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $74.60
Gold — $1,097.88
Silver — $17.46
Palladium — $453.00
Platinum — $1,629.50
Copper — $7,280.00
Aluminum — $2,238.00
Nickel — $18.950.00
Zinc — $2,427.00
Cocoa — $3,429.00
Sugar — $28.81
Corn — $371.75
Soybean — $953.00