Commodity Blog

Archive for March 15th, 2010

Copper is an industrial metal important for housing construction. It’s also used in construction of refrigerators, automobiles, cell phones and other goods. Copper was steadily rising in the past year, but it experienced sharp decline through January to the beginning of February. Then, in the second half of February to March, the metal rebounded. What do analysts say about copper’s perspective? In fact, opinions vary on this matter.

There are voices supporting optimistic outlook for copper price. They are speculating about global economic recovery, supporting demand for the industrial metal. Data from the U.S., one of major copper consumer, about expanding economy especially supports optimism for copper performance, as healthy economy and decreasing jobless rate lead to more housing construction and, as a result, more copper demand. Reports about dwindling stockpiles of LME-monitored copper also can result in price increase. LME-monitored inventories of copper dropped to almost 540,000 metric tones, lowest amount since early February.

But many analysts are inclined to pessimistic view on copper ability to rise or even maintain current price level, some even were going as far as calling current price level “a bubble”. They point out that key reason for the metal’s outstanding performance was huge amount of copper imported by China, one of the world’s greatest consumer, causing copper price to double in 2009. In 2010 it turned out that China imported more copper than it really requires. And it seems that suggestion about demand for the metal rebounding after New Year holidays in China did not prove true. There is also concern that economic recovery may be slow and supply may exceed demand. Earthquake in Chile caused price surge at first but, while being harmful for copper output, didn’t affected copper production as strong as was expected.

So, how can we predict copper moves amid such uncertainty? First answer lies in the very nature of copper as industrial metal. Copper is tied very strongly with overall economical picture, so the world economy can suggest possible copper moves. If economy will continue to rebound, then copper will continue to go up. Another factor worthy consideration is a dollar. Commodities, including copper, are very dependent on the U.S. currency these days, so look for the greenback performance for suggestion where commodities may be heading. It’s also looks like copper performance is strongly correlated with the stock market, so you can plan your trade if you can predict where the stock market is heading.

Soybeans gained after demand for the grain from makers of animal feed and vegetable oil in the U.S. increased in the past month. Processors consumed 148.35 million bushels of soybeans in February, which is 15 percent higher than in the previous year and highest level for the month ever. Dwindling U.S. stockpiles is a supportive factor for the grain price. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.0525 (0.6 percent) to $9.3075 per bushel as of 11:25 on CBoT.

Wheat fell on concern that a rising dollar will cut appeal of the U.S. supplies and as good weather conditions resulted in the favorable outlook for the winter crop in Kansas. The greenback rebounded 0.7 percent versus a basket of six major currencies. The government report showed that inventories may reach 27.2 million metric tons by May 31st, the highest level since 1988. May futures for wheat delivery slid $0.045 (0.9 percent) to $4.8075 per bushel by 11:45 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 17:36 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $77.80
Gold — $1,105.60
Silver — $17.09
Palladium — $457.50
Platinum — $1,609.66
Copper — $7,312.00
Aluminum — $2,230.00
Nickel — $21,562.00
Zinc — $2,275.00
Cocoa — $2,853.00
Sugar — $19.34
Corn — $363.50
Soybean — $931.50