Commodity Blog

Archive for February, 2012

Lumber futures climbed today as US housing market recovers and demand from China is expected to increase. Wood Resources International LLC predicted that lumber may reach $300 per 1,000 board feet by July. Lumber price rose 0.7 percent to $279.10 by 10:26 on CME today. Prices were up 12 percent since the end of January.

Gold and silver posted a biggest drop in two months after today’s testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made analysts speculate that the US central bank will refrain from adding stimulus for the US economy. Bernanke said that “decline in the unemployment rate over the past year has been somewhat more rapid than might have been expected” and that the labor market demonstrated “positive developments”, though “the job market remains far from normal”. The Chairman also said that “the inflation outlook subdued”. Such comments hint that the Fed isn’t going embark on a new round of quantitative easing. Precious metals suffered as an additional easing was priced in and the Chairman’s testimony has triggered a massive sell-off. Gold price slumped from $1,787.10 to $1,692.50 per ounce as of 20:54 GMT on COMEX and reached the lowest level since January 25 today. Silver was down from $36.93 to $34.52 per ounce in New York today.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 20:33 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $122.94
Gold — $1,690.20
Silver — $34.37
Palladium — $703.00
Platinum — $1,677.20
Copper — $386.00
Aluminum — $112.65
Cocoa — $2,346.00
Sugar — $25.66
Corn — $656.00
Soybean — $1,313.75

Crude oil fell today after Europe’s request for help was declined on the Group of Twenty meeting until the European Union will boost its financial firewall to defend from the debt crisis. The members of G20 were unhappy with slow reaction to problems and long time needed by EU members to make any meaningful decision. April contract for delivery of crude oil dropped as much as $1.21 to $108.56 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent crude slid from $125.25 to $123.30 per barrel as of 23:12 GMT on ICE today.

Soybeans gained today, reaching five-month record, on forecast that declining supply from South America may lead to higher demand for US exports. Forecasters predict that soybean yield in Brazil will drop to 68 million metric tons in 2012 from 75.3 million in the preceding year. Estimate of Argentinean harvest was revised down to 44.5 million tons from the January forecast of 49 million. Soybean price climbed from $12.7800 to $12.9350 per bushel on CBoT today and touched $12.9500 — the highest level since September 22.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 21:56 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $123.19
Gold — $1,773.60
Silver — $35.39
Palladium — $703.75
Platinum — $1,707.80
Copper — $386.25
Aluminum — $112.45
Cocoa — $2,439.00
Sugar — $26.50
Corn — $644.75
Soybean — $1,293.50

The technical analysis, that includes the indicators’ data and major pivot points for Brent Oil, Gold, Silver and Copper as traded on spot market as of February 25th, 2012:

Commodities, including crude oil and copper, rallied today, while gold retreated as positive macroeconomic data from Europe and the United States supported positive mood of traders. Germany’s economy expanded 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 from a year ago. US new home sales were at an annual rate of 321,000 in January, more than analysts predicted. Sentiment of American consumer improved as was shown by University of Michigan index that rose to 75.0 in February, compared to the preliminary estimate of 72.5.

All in all, this was a good week for most commodities, especially oil that reached the highest level since May. Greece came off from news headlines, at least temporarily, and market participants turned their attention to Germany that fared much better. At the same time, the USA continued to show a robust growth, supporting optimism among traders.

April futures for delivery of crude oil climbed as much as $1.94 (1.8 percent) to $109.77 per barrel on NYMEX, the highest price since May 3. Brent crude jumped from $124.08 to $125.55 per barrel, the highest level since May 2, before closing at $125.37 on ICE today. Gold price was down from $1,778.50 to $1,773.20 per ounce on COMEX. Copper settlement climbed from $3.8225 to $3.8615 per pound in New York after reaching $3.8825 — the highest since February 13.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 21:06 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $125.38
Gold — $1,773.00
Silver — $35.40
Palladium — $713.00
Platinum — $1,716.00
Copper — $385.65
Aluminum — $111.65
Cocoa — $2,367.00
Sugar — $26.20
Corn — $640.50
Soybean — $1,280.00

Wheat fell today, following yesterday’s decline, on forecast that global inventories will rise to a record. Estimates of the US Department of Agriculture show that stockpiles may reach a record 213.1 million metric tons in 2011–12 marketing year. Some analysts predict that inventories may swell to 220 million tons next marketing year. Wheat traded at $6.3900 per bushel as of 1:32 GMT today on CBoT after falling yesterday from $6.4400 to $6.4075.

Crude oil continued its rally to an annual record as fears of recession in Europe eased. German business sentiment improved more than was predicted by economists. Additionally, US jobless claims remained unchanged last week, signaling that the US jobs market is stabilizing. April for delivery of crude oil jumped 0.8 percent to $108.69 per barrel in electronic trading on NYMEX before trading at $108.61. Brent crude traded at $124.14 per barrel on ICE today, following yesterday’s advance from $122.75 to $124.20, reaching $124.50 intraday, the highest price since May 3.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 22:20 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $124.30
Gold — $1,777.90
Silver — $35.40
Palladium — $718.70
Platinum — $1,724.90
Copper — $381.15
Aluminum — $109.90
Cocoa — $2,337.00
Sugar — $25.92
Corn — $639.00
Soybean — $1,276.75

Crude oil was down today on negative macroeconomic data from the United States, Europe and China. Manufacturing in China was falling in February, according to a preliminary estimate, albeit with slower pace. Reports showed that manufacturing and service industries in the eurozone also contracted. US existing home sales rose in January less than was predicted by market analysts. Earlier, crude climbed as inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency were denied access to an Iranian military base. April futures for delivery of crude oil fell $0.27 (0.3 percent) to $105.98 per barrel by 13:53 on NYMEX, following the previous rise to $106.47, the highest settlement since May 5. Brent crude jumped from $121.50 to $122.91 per barrel as of 19:30 GMT today on ICE and reached the daily high of $123.23 — the highest since May 3.

Coffee price also slipped on the negative data, but additionally on rising stockpiles and growing exports from Brazil. ICE-monitored inventories of coffee climbed 24 percent since the end of October. Brazil boosted permits for exports of the commodity 26 percent in February from January. Coffee price slid from $2.0400 per pound to $2.0085 today on ICE.