Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices – Coffee

Hogs futures slipped today on forecast that high US pork prices may diminish retail demand. Meatpackers shipped 9.215 million pounds of pork last week, the worst week since late June. October futures for hog settlement slid $0.003 (0.4 percent) to $0.793 per pound at 9:42 on CME.

Raw sugar experienced a strongest decrease in almost two moths on speculation that supplies from Brazil and India, the world’s largest producers, would increase, erasing the global deficit. Production in Brazil’s Center South increased by 26 percent in the first half of July, while cane planting in India was boosted by rains, which were 2.5 percent above the 50-year average in July. October delivery for raw sugar slumped $0.0079 (4.1 percent) to $0.1861 per pound by 9:45 on ICE.

Coffee futures dropped the most in two weeks on speculation that the commodity rallied too much, considering the anticipated high supplies from Brazil, the biggest producer. Global coffee production may grow 12 percent to 135 million bags in the year starting October 1st. September delivery for Arabica coffee slid $0.0475 (2.8 percent) to $1.6775 per pound as of 10:04 on ICE.

Coffee price jumped today as the weak dollar increased appeal of some commodities. The greenback slid 1 percent against the basket of six major currencies today. Analysts say that in case the futures would break the $1.70 level, the price would go up. September delivery for Arabica coffee gained $0.037 (2.2 percent) to $1.686 per pound as of 9:28 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Cattle futures extended this month’s rally, climbing today to the highest level in eight weeks, on forecast that demand for beef exports from the U.S. would increase after the dollar dropped. Beef exports from the U.S. rose as much as 27 percent in May to 203.55 million pounds compared to 160.46 million in the previous year. October futures for cattle delivery rose $0.00375 (0.4 percent) to $0.93775 per pound by 10:59 on CME.

Arabica coffee climbed to the weekly high level today amid speculations that supplies would decline. Inventories tracked by ICE sank 29 percent this year to the lowest level since August 2002 as of July 7th. Global exports will be below last year’s forecast of 95.5 million bags (1 bag equals 60 kilograms or 132 pounds). September delivery for Arabica coffee gained $0.024 (1.5 percent) to $1.645 per pound at 10:01 on ICE.

Cattle futures dropped today on expectation that outdoor grilling in the U.S. would decline because of jot weather, diminishing demand for beef. Prices also may slump as investors liquidate positions after the three-day rally. Prices were rising throughout this year partly because of growing demand for beef. August futures for cattle delivery dropped $0.004 (0.4 percent) to $0.905 per pound as of 10:47 on CME.

Coffee slipped today on forecasts about high output in Brazil. Analysts think that the previous high prices haven’t reflected the supply and demand balance and the correction was expected. September delivery for Arabica-coffee fell $0.008 (0.5 percent) to $1.60 per pound by 8:32 on ICE Futures U.S.

Wheat declined today for the third consecutive session as hot weather in the U.S. made fields dry enough for harvest. U.S. winter crop harvest was completed at 17 percent as of June 20th, up from 9 percent the week before. September futures for wheat delivery slid $0.04 (0.8 percent) to $4.7325 per bushel by 10:07 on CBoT.

Hog and cattle futures gained today as prices for wholesale-meat rose with expectations of increased demand in the U.S. as summer grilling started. Demand should increase with the coming of the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4, encouraging grocers to increase their stockpiles. August futures for hog settlement rose $0.00325 (0.4 percent) to $0.84675 per pound as of 10:11 on CME.

Wheat rose today amid speculations that planting in Canada might be at its lowest level in almost four decades because of excessive precipitation. Farmers in Canada, the second largest grower of the grain in the world, may plant 19.15 million acres of wheat, down 18 percent from the previous year and the lowest level since 1971. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.0175 (0.4 percent) to $4.785 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Sugar dropped today from its highest level in seven weeks as traders think that prices rallied too much. Analysts say that fundamentals remain unchanged and the decline is just correction after an excessive rally. October delivery for raw sugar slipped $0.0045 (2.8 percent) to $0.156 per pound on ICE.

Arabica-coffee also declined on the opinion that its rally was overdone. Experts have divided opinions on an optimal price level for Arabica-coffee. Some say that current price is where it has to be, while others argue that fundamentals are pointing to higher price. September delivery for Arabica-coffee slid $0.018 (1.1 percent) to $1.578 per pound on ICE.

Coffee futures jumped today on signs of declining global supplies. Vietnam exports of coffee in the previous month were 10 percent less than predicted. Output from El Salvador expected to be 1.075 million bags in the year ending September 30th, compare to previous forecasts of 1.52 million. July delivery for Arabica coffee jumped $0.0095 (0.7 percent) to $1.337 per pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Sugar gained in New York on amid growing demand and as buyers increase inventories. Unfavorable weather in Brazil and India in the previous year caused supplies to decline and sparked speculations about possible deficit if the sweetener. July delivery for raw sugar gained $0.0011 (0.7 percent) to $0.1536 per pound on ICE.

Soybeans advanced on speculation that European debt crisis will be outweighed by growing demand for food and livestock feed from China. China plans to import 46 million metric tons in the year that ends October 1st and may import as much as 49 million next year. July futures for soybean delivery advanced $0.075 (0.8 percent) to $9.38 per bushel on CBoT.

Wheat prices slipped to a monthly low after report that U.S. stockpiles will touch the record level in 22 years. U.S. wheat inventories will increase to 27.2 million metric tons by May 31st. Before today wheat slid on speculation about growing world supplies. May futures for wheat delivery declined $0.03 (0.6 percent) to $4.785 per bushel as of 10:14 on CBoT.

Coffee futures gained in New York after stockpiles dwindled to lowest level in seven years. Coffee inventories slid to 2.7 million bags (1.2 percent) in ICE-monitored warehouses on March 9th. Earlier coffee futures rose as global supplies waned. May futures for Arabica-coffee delivery went up $0.004 (0.3 percent) to $1.3315 per pound by 10:21 a.m. on ICE in New York.

Coffee may rise 21 percent in two months on lack of high quality supplies. The output in Columbia, the second largest grower in the world, fell to the lowest in 33 years because of adverse weather. Analysts predict that global demand will be about 131 million bags, while world production will be around 124 million bags in 2010. May futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.0515 (3.8 percent) to $1.319 per pound today in New York.

Corn and soybean prices advance with rising gasoline price, boosting the attractiveness of fuels produced from grain and oilseeds. Gasoline prices reached the highest level in five weeks, increasing demand for corn-based ethanol and biodiesel made from soybeans. May futures for corn delivery gained $0.11 (3 percent) to $3.8275 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.145 (1.5 percent) to $9.69 per bushel.

Coffee slid New York as the stronger dollar curbed demand for commodities as an alternative investment. The greenback gained for the first time this week versus a basket of six major currencies. March futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.006 (0.5 percent) to $1.298 per pound by 9:51 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Coffee price may tumble to $1.20 if the dollar rally will continue, yet the coffee may rise with deficit of high quality coffee and in case of dollar decline. The coffee price increased previous year because adverse weather harmed harvests in Brazil and Colombia.

Sugar rose on speculation that farmers in India will not significantly increase planting of cane. A less-than-expected increase in planting area can lead to import of sugar by India, supporting prices. March futures for raw-sugar delivery rose 1.8 percent to $0.2707 per pound on ICE.

Cocoa futures dropped after the dollar gained, causing an equity decline and, as a result, the investment attractiveness of commodities to wane. Decline is also caused by concerns that jobless rate in the U.S. and rising debt in Europe will stall economic revival. Analysts say that “equities can very easily break cocoa”. May futures for cocoa delivery fell $55 (1.7 percent) to $3,125 per metric ton on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Coffee price tumbled to the four-month low. Analysts say that this drop caused by the dollar’s rebound, not fundamentals. The dollar’s advance may convince investors and funds to take money out of commodities. March futures for Arabica-coffee delivery waned $0.0145 (1.1 percent) to $1.3155 per pound today.

Sugar went down in New York to the two-week low as the dollar rebounded against the euro, curbing investment appeal of the commodity. The U.S. currency gained 1.2 percent versus the euro, putting commodities under pressure. Some analysts say that sugar will be traded in a range of $0.27–$0.29 in the next couple of months if it wouldn’t fall below $0.27 now. March futures for raw-sugar delivery slid $0.0062 (2.2 percent) to $0.28 per pound by 13:08 on ICE.