The International Coffee Organization increased its forecast for the world coffee production by 3.8 million bags from December to 132.4 million bags in the season that started in October. Analysts say that short sellers drive the market now, while buyers perhaps expect prices to fall further.

Greece is talking with private creditors in an attempt to convince them to write off part of the country’s debt. Initially, the talks improved mood of traders, boosting commodities, but the optimism started to wear off as market participants began to doubt success of the discussions.

Coffee price went down from $2.2390 to $2.2000 per pound yesterday on ICE after reaching earlier $2.1785 — the lowest level since January 9.
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Coffee fell as inventories grew. ICE-monitored stockpiles rose for the fifth consecutive week and have increased 20 percent since November 1. The prices may still rebound as the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture showed that the balance of supply and demand may result in deficit. Coffee prices declined from $2.1340 to $2.1095 per pound on ICE.
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Silver ended this week posting the 27 percent drop, the biggest weekly decline since at least 1975. On the other hand, gold rebounded, ending three days of losses. The difference between the performance of the yellow metal and the white metal can be explained by the higher margin requirements for silver futures on COMEX. Futures for delivery of silver in July dropped $0.953 (2.6 percent) to $35.287 per ounce as of 14:11 on COMEX. June futures for gold delivery gained $10.20 (0.7 percent) to $1,491.60 per ounce.
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Thailand may export 7 million metric tons of sugar this season, and that would be a record. Analysts are afraid that surge of exports can create oversupply on the global markets.

At the same time, demand for the sweetener may decline as Asian countries are expected to slow their economic growth. India and Brazil signaled that they are considering another round of interest rate increases, while China continues its attempts to rein the rapidly growing inflation.

July for raw sugar delivery fell as much as $0.007 (3.2 percent) to $0.2135 per pound by 14:00 on ICE, following the drop to $0.2133, the lowest price since Sept. 10. Futures on raw sugar lost 34 percent this year.

July contract for cocoa delivery slipped $60 (1.8 percent) to $3,211 per metric ton at 11:58. Futures on Arabica coffee for delivery in July dropped $0.1165 (3.8 percent) to $2.945 per pound.
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Concerns about tighter supply from Brazil boosted sugar prices. Adverse weather in Brazil helped the prices to jump 23 percent this year. March delivery for raw sugar gained $0.0006 (0.2 percent) to $0.3302 per pound by 13:46 on ICE.

Coffee futures also continued the rally to the 13-year record on speculation that adverse weather in Brazil and India may curb supplies. Commodities, including coffee, also gained on a weaker dollar. March delivery for Arabica coffee advanced $0.092 (4.1 percent) to $2.3385 per pound as of 14:00 ICE.
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Arabica coffee jumped to the highest level in 13 years today on forecast that excessive rains may disrupt supplies from Vietnam. Global output may also decline because of smaller harvest in Brazil, biggest grower in the world. December delivery for Arabica coffee rose $0.0295 (1.4 percent) to $2.081 per pound as of 14:00 on ICE.

Cotton advanced to a record for a fifth consecutive session after output in China declined, causing speculation that it’ll increase imports and that’ll put strain on global stockpiles. Output in China may decline 5 percent in the year beginning September 1st because of natural disasters. December delivery for cotton went up $0.04 (2.8 percent) to the record of $1.4623 per pound at 14:25 on ICE.
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White sugar also rose today on speculation that Russia may increase its imports of the sweetener. Russia’s imports of raw sugar may jump as much as 300,000 tons before end of this year. December delivery for white sugar gained $2.70 (0.4 percent) to $698 per ton on NYSE Liffe.
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Raw sugar experienced a strongest decrease in almost two moths on speculation that supplies from Brazil and India, the world’s largest producers, would increase, erasing the global deficit. Production in Brazil’s Center South increased by 26 percent in the first half of July, while cane planting in India was boosted by rains, which were 2.5 percent above the 50-year average in July. October delivery for raw sugar slumped $0.0079 (4.1 percent) to $0.1861 per pound by 9:45 on ICE.

Coffee futures dropped the most in two weeks on speculation that the commodity rallied too much, considering the anticipated high supplies from Brazil, the biggest producer. Global coffee production may grow 12 percent to 135 million bags in the year starting October 1st. September delivery for Arabica coffee slid $0.0475 (2.8 percent) to $1.6775 per pound as of 10:04 on ICE.
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Cattle futures extended this month’s rally, climbing today to the highest level in eight weeks, on forecast that demand for beef exports from the U.S. would increase after the dollar dropped. Beef exports from the U.S. rose as much as 27 percent in May to 203.55 million pounds compared to 160.46 million in the previous year. October futures for cattle delivery rose $0.00375 (0.4 percent) to $0.93775 per pound by 10:59 on CME.
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Cattle futures dropped today on expectation that outdoor grilling in the U.S. would decline because of jot weather, diminishing demand for beef. Prices also may slump as investors liquidate positions after the three-day rally. Prices were rising throughout this year partly because of growing demand for beef. August futures for cattle delivery dropped $0.004 (0.4 percent) to $0.905 per pound as of 10:47 on CME.
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Wheat declined today for the third consecutive session as hot weather in the U.S. made fields dry enough for harvest. U.S. winter crop harvest was completed at 17 percent as of June 20th, up from 9 percent the week before. September futures for wheat delivery slid $0.04 (0.8 percent) to $4.7325 per bushel by 10:07 on CBoT.

Hog and cattle futures gained today as prices for wholesale-meat rose with expectations of increased demand in the U.S. as summer grilling started. Demand should increase with the coming of the U.S. Independence Day holiday on July 4, encouraging grocers to increase their stockpiles. August futures for hog settlement rose $0.00325 (0.4 percent) to $0.84675 per pound as of 10:11 on CME.
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Sugar dropped today from its highest level in seven weeks as traders think that prices rallied too much. Analysts say that fundamentals remain unchanged and the decline is just correction after an excessive rally. October delivery for raw sugar slipped $0.0045 (2.8 percent) to $0.156 per pound on ICE.

Arabica-coffee also declined on the opinion that its rally was overdone. Experts have divided opinions on an optimal price level for Arabica-coffee. Some say that current price is where it has to be, while others argue that fundamentals are pointing to higher price. September delivery for Arabica-coffee slid $0.018 (1.1 percent) to $1.578 per pound on ICE.
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