Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices - Copper

Copper is an industrial metal important for housing construction. It’s also used in construction of refrigerators, automobiles, cell phones and other goods. Copper was steadily rising in the past year, but it experienced sharp decline through January to the beginning of February. Then, in the second half of February to March, the metal rebounded. What do analysts say about copper’s perspective? In fact, opinions vary on this matter.

There are voices supporting optimistic outlook for copper price. They are speculating about global economic recovery, supporting demand for the industrial metal. Data from the U.S., one of major copper consumer, about expanding economy especially supports optimism for copper performance, as healthy economy and decreasing jobless rate lead to more housing construction and, as a result, more copper demand. Reports about dwindling stockpiles of LME-monitored copper also can result in price increase. LME-monitored inventories of copper dropped to almost 540,000 metric tones, lowest amount since early February.

But many analysts are inclined to pessimistic view on copper ability to rise or even maintain current price level, some even were going as far as calling current price level “a bubble”. They point out that key reason for the metal’s outstanding performance was huge amount of copper imported by China, one of the world’s greatest consumer, causing copper price to double in 2009. In 2010 it turned out that China imported more copper than it really requires. And it seems that suggestion about demand for the metal rebounding after New Year holidays in China did not prove true. There is also concern that economic recovery may be slow and supply may exceed demand. Earthquake in Chile caused price surge at first but, while being harmful for copper output, didn’t affected copper production as strong as was expected.

So, how can we predict copper moves amid such uncertainty? First answer lies in the very nature of copper as industrial metal. Copper is tied very strongly with overall economical picture, so the world economy can suggest possible copper moves. If economy will continue to rebound, then copper will continue to go up. Another factor worthy consideration is a dollar. Commodities, including copper, are very dependent on the U.S. currency these days, so look for the greenback performance for suggestion where commodities may be heading. It’s also looks like copper performance is strongly correlated with the stock market, so you can plan your trade if you can predict where the stock market is heading.

Wheat prices advanced as the dollar fell, spurring demand for the U.S. grain. The U. S. currency slipped as much as 0.4 percent versus a basket of major currencies. Global stockpiles may climb 19 percent to 195.9 million metric tons in the year ending May 31st, slowing the wheat price increase. The grain price may also fall as U.S. have to compete with other exporters. May futures for wheat delivery advanced $0.015 (0.3 percent) to $4.95 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Sugar futures dropped to the weekly low on speculation that world demand will decline. Analysts say that with increasing global inventories “the bulls will lose their opportunity for a strong rally”. May futures for raw-sugar delivery dropped $0.0062 (2.8 percent) to $0.2157 per pound on ICE.

Copper prices slid on concern that demand for the industrial metal will decline in China with stalled economic recovery. Earlier the metal fluctuated, following the dollar and the U.S. equities. May futures for copper delivery slid $0.007 (0.2 percent) to $3.4105 per pound on NYMEX.

Analysts forecast that gold priced in euro will continue to hit new highs. When price will reach its previous peak a cup and handle pattern may occur as investors start selling, causing some decline in price. After that price tend to rise greatly. Gold rose to 836.98 euro per ounce, an all-time record, on March 2nd.

Copper scrap discount to New York-listed futures declined by half in two months on deficit of used metal. Demand for the copper is rebounding on speculation that economic recovery will increase consumption. In the same time, scrap copper becoming scarcer because of harsh winter in the U.S. as snow hampers collection of scarp. May delivery for copper shrunk 0.3 percent to $3.4245 per pound by 11:17 on NYMEX.

Copper slipped today on speculation that economic rebound in the U.S. may be slow. Uncertainty in future of the U.S. economy lowered consumer confidence, causing fewer purchases. Copper prices also slid as the rebounding dollar curbed the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge. May futures for copper delivery fell $0.094 (2.8 percent) to $3.2345 per pound on the Comex Division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Cocoa sunk to the lowest since September in New York on signals that large supplies will cut the price of the chocolate ingredient. Prices also dropped as the dollar gained 0.7 percent versus the euro. A rising dollar cut demand for some commodities as alternative assets. May futures for cocoa delivery slid $138 (4.5 percent) to $2,945 per ton on ICE.

Copper rose in London on outlook for increasing demand in Japan, the fourth biggest buyer of the metal in the world. Japan’s gross domestic product grew 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Imports of the metal in China declined as much as 546,000 metric tons. Yet analysts say that this decline can be more than offset by rising global demand. Three-month delivery for copper rose $70 (1 percent) to $6,880 per ton by 16:52 on the London Metal Exchange.

Wheat futures fell in Paris on speculation that rising global stockpiles will decrease prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that global wheat stockpiles will increase from 164 million metric tons a year earlier to 195.9 million tons by the end of May as supply exceeds demand for a second year. Prices may yet go up with farmers’ reluctance to sell at current prices and good European Union exports. March delivery for milling wheat fell 0.4 percent to 125.25 euros ($170.35) per metric ton today on NYSE Liffe.

In this video ONN’s Kevin Cook and David Hightower from www.futures-research.com talk about the recent developments in the copper stocks and the drawdown in the U.S. oil refinery. Big copper consumers a simply stockpiling copper, while the falling crude refinery rates suggest that in a short-term perspective the economy will continue to decline, pulling the commodities down. But the general supply and demand picture didn’t change much, as the normal supply is still higher than the demand in most commodities, suggesting a long-term bullish picture.

Cocoa rose to a highest level in 21 years in London on speculation that demand will be boosted by a rebounding global economic. Restocking is taking place as consumer confidence returns and business conditions improve. Cocoa consumption jumped 0.6 percent in Europe in the fourth quarter. March delivery for cocoa rose 1 percent to $3,770 per metric ton on Liffe today.

Copper prices tumbled to the four-week low as the rising dollar cut buying of commodities as an inflation hedge and a decline in equity markets curbed demand outlook. Yet some analysts think that the outlook for copper over the longer term is quite positive as demand rises in Asia, including China. March futures for copper delivery dropped $0.06 (1.8 percent) to $3.295 per pound on NYMEX.

Soybeans rose on expectations that demand from China will rebound after prices from the U.S. fell 9.4 percent this month. China’s demand for soybeans grown in the U.S. to produce cooking oil and livestock feed rose as drought harmed crops in South America last year. March futures for soybean delivery gained $0.04 (0.4 percent) to $9.54 per bushel on CBoT.

Copper gained in New York and London after imports of the industrial metal into China rose for a second month and the dollar fell. Shipments of copper into China increased to 369,400 tons in December. March futures for copper delivery gained $0.0405 (1.2 percent) to $3.441 per pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Delivery for copper in three months rose $106.50 (1.4 percent) to $7,567.50 a ton ($3.43 a pound) on LME.

Corn futures slid and soybeans declined on speculation that demand for supplies from the U.S. will decline as rains will increase crop yields in Argentina and Brazil. Rainfall will aid crops in Brazil in the next 10 days and will increase soil moisture for developing corn and soybeans in the next two days in Argentina. March futures for corn delivery declined $0.005 to $4.225 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. March futures for soybean delivery slid $0.115 (1.1 percent) to $10.105 per bushel in Chicago.

Sugar tumbled to the lowest in nine weeks after speculators increased sales as prices last week reached the record in almost 29 years. Hedge-fund managers and other speculators boosted net-long positions by 25 percent in the last six weeks. March futures for raw-sugar delivery dropped $0.0078 (2.8 percent) to $0.2675 per pound on ICE.

Orange-juice futures went up after frosts hit Florida, the second greatest grower in the world after Brazil. Cold weather will last for a week, which should be not enough to noticeably damage crops. March futures for orange-juice delivery added $0.083 (6.4 percent) to $1.3735 per pound as of 10:33 on ICE.

Copper prices jumped to the record in 16 months after a strike at the second-biggest mine in the world and as manufacturing in the U.S., China and India increased in December. Last month manufacturing in the U.S. grew at fastest rate in three months. Demand for the metal in China reached a record in the first half of 2009. March futures for copper delivery climbed $0.0505 (1.5 percent) to $3.397 per pound by 11:22 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex unit.

White sugar price reached the highest level in at two decades in London on concern that flooding in Brazil may harm the crop. Analysts forecast that global sugar production will decline by 13.5 million tons in 2009–2010 season. March delivery for white sugar rose $16.10 (2.3 percent) to $726.30 per metric ton on the Liffe exchange.

Refined copper imports in China, the greatest buyer in the world, rebounded in November with rising domestic prices and increasing demand. China may increase imports to 200,000 tons per month in the first quarter of 2010 as high domestic prices made purchases from overseas sellers cheaper. Delivery for copper in three months on LME dropped 0.6 percent to $6,895 per ton by 15:21 in Shanghai.

Corn slid and soybeans went down as the dollar gained, curbing the attractiveness of commodities as an alternative investment. Analysts says that the strong dollar “is encouraging some speculators to reduce long positions”. March futures for corn delivery went down $0.055 (1.4 percent) to $3.945 per bushel as of 10:32 on CBT. March futures for soybean delivery slid $0.1075 (1.1 percent) to $9.9775 per bushel in Chicago.

Crude oil rose as the dollar dropped and on speculation about global economic restoration. A rising dollar cut demand for commodities as an alternative investment. February delivery for crude oil gained $0.62 (0.8 percent) to $74.34 per barrel by 13:13 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.