Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices – Copper

Copper gained today on positive data from the United States, while China is going to ease requirements for lenders. The International Monetary Fund plans to boost funds available for helping troubled countries to $1 trillion, possibly aiming to help endangered European economies.

US industrial production expanded 0.4 percent in December. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed that manufacturing advanced this month. There are more reports this week that should show positive developments in the US economy.

Futures for delivery of copper in three months advanced 1.6 percent to $8,372 per metric ton on LME, the highest settlement since September 21, before trading at $8,332.50. That was the fourth day of gains.

Crude oil and copper pared yesterday’s gains today as concerns about the European debt crisis stopped the rally of commodities. Gold, on the other hand, profited from the worries.

Demand for German bonds on the auction yesterday was weak. Eurozone inflation fell from 3.0 percent to 2.8 percent last month, according to the preliminary estimate of Eurostat.

Earlier, crude was rising on growing tensions around Iran. Oil and copper were also rallying as manufacturing in the United States and China expanded.

February futures for delivery of crude was down $0.71 to $102.25 per barrel as of 00:43 GMT in electronic trading on NYMEX. Brent crude dropped from $113.65 to $113.05 per barrel as of 3:43 GMT today on ICE. Copper was down from $3.4700 to $3.4230 per pound, while gold went higher from $1,614.20 to $1,617.20 per ounce today on COMEX.

Oil fell as China’s manufacturing decline. The HSBC/Markit China Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.0 to 48.7 in December. A value below 50.0 indicates contraction. Europe also continued to hurt commodities. February futures for delivery of crude oil fell $0.82 to $98.83 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent fell from $108.04 to $107.76 per barrel on ICE.

Copper performed better on hopes that the US economic growth would outweigh the problems in Europe and the slowdown in China. The US PMI is expected to post a positive reading next week. The US economy grew 1.8 percent this year and analysts predict that it’ll expand 2.1 percent in 2011. Copper advanced from $3.4220 to $3.4315 per pound on COMEX.

Copper gained today as global inventories declined, while demand is expected to pick up.

Global stockpiles fell 22 percent since March and were at the lowest level since October 2009 this month.

The European Central Bank injected money in Europe’s financial system by providing loans to European banks in an attempt to battle with the region’s crisis. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted that Europe’s demand for copper will increase in the next quarter and prices will advance 26 percent in the next year.

The US economy continuously shows signs of improvement, improving prospects for industrial metals. Durable goods orders rose 3.8 percent in November after no growth was registered in October.

Copper rose from $3.4250 to $3.4470 per pound today on COMEX and earlier reached $3.4635 — the highest level since December 13.

Copper, oil and gold advanced as good news from Europe and the United States bolstered commodities. Oil also rose on the speculation that the US inventories declined.

The European Union pledged €150 billion to the International Monetary Fund that the IMF will use to help in the battle with the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. The German Business Climate index unexpectedly increased to 107.2 in December from 106.6 in November, while analysts predicted it to drop to 106.2. Spain sold its three- and six-month bills at an auction yesterday, exceeding its maximum target.

The US housing starts increased from 627,000 to 685,000 and the building permits rose from 644,000 to 681,000 in November.

February futures for crude oil delivery advanced $3.19 to $97.24 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent oil was at $107.15 per barrel today as of 3:11 GMT on ICE after jumping from $104.30 to $107.00 yesterday. Gold advanced from $1,615.50 to $1,620.20 per ounce today on COMEX, following yesterday’s rise from $1,596.40 to $1,615.00. Copper traded near its opening level of $3.3720 per pound today, while the metal climbed from $3.3230 to $3.3640 yesterday.

The start of this week was an unpleasant one as most commodities took a great hit as concerns about Europe reemerged. The main reason for the pessimism was the warning from Moody’s Investor Service that it may downgrade the credit ratings of the eurozone countries. The European leaders attempted to address the problems during the summit on the last Friday, but the implications of the meeting will be felt over a longer term, not in an immediate future, so the rating agency wrote:

But in the absence of policy initiatives in the near future that stabilise credit market conditions effectively, Moody’s believes that the system remains prone to further shocks, which would likely lead to selective rating changes. As a result, Moody’s intention remains to revisit sovereign ratings of euro area and EU countries during the first quarter of 2012.

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI index of 24 commodities fell as much as 1.3 percent to close at 638.93 after earlier it reached 636.8, the lowest level since November 25.

Gold slumped from $1,707.50 to $1,663.90 per ounce on COMEX yesterday and traded today at $1,654.70. Silver slipped from $31.76 to $31.25 on the previous trading session. Copper was down from $3.5045 to $3.4460 per pound and traded today near $3.4435. Brent crude rose from $107.23 to $107.50 per barrel today on ICE after yesterday’s drop from $108.75 to $107.11 per barrel.

Commodities, including copper and oil, gained today on good news from Europe and the United States. The European politicians discussed on today’s summit ways to resolve the region’s debt problems and announced a range of measures, including leverage for the temporary bailout fund and an implementation of more permanent stability mechanism next year. The US consumer confidence improved this month, according to the preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan.

Agricultural commodities, specifically corn, soybeans and wheat, haven’t joined the rally as the US Department of Agriculture boosted its forecast for the next year’s inventories. The outlook for the global stockpiles of corn was 4.6 percent higher than in the previous estimate, for soybeans 1.5 percent higher and for wheat 2.9 percent above the previous forecast.

January futures for delivery of crude oil advanced $1.07 to $99.41 per barrel on NYMEX, while Brent jumped from $107.78 to $108.68 per barrel today as of 21:48 GMT on ICE. Copper rallied from $3.4720 to $3.5560 per pound on COMEX. Corn fell from $5.8900 to $5.8500 per bushel, soybeans slumped from $11.3100 to $11.0575 and wheat traded near its opening price of $5.7675 after falling to $5.6775 today on CBoT.

Commodities slumped yesterday after the European Central Bank signaled that it’s not going to expand its bond purchases. The central bank took steps for helping the eurozone by lowering its main interest rate by 25 basis points and it also announced measures to support the bank lending and money market activity. But market participants were disappointed as they were hoping for more involvement from the ECB.

It’s not surprising to see commodities like oil and copper among the losers, but gold again unpleasantly surprised gold bulls. Analysts again named fears of deflation as a reason for the bearishness of gold. The previous high prices of the precious metal were caused by the expectation that central banks would start printing money, inflating the financial system. The ECB still refuses to do so and it doesn’t look like the US Federal Reserve is going to announce a quantitative easing anytime soon. That was a great disappointment for gold.

Brent crude oil traded at $108.07 per barrel today as of 2:00 GMT on ICE, following yesterday’s slump from $109.60 to $107.55 per barrel. Gold was near $1,711.90 per ounce on COMEX today after on the previous trading session it dropped from $1,742.0 to $1,707.90 per ounce. Copper slid from $3.5500 to $3.4755 per pound yesterday.

Copper fell today as Standard & Poor’s warned that it put the credit ratings of 15 countries of the Eurozone on review with negative implications. The rating agency provided various reasons for such decision, including the indecisiveness of the European policy makers and the growing risk of a new recession. The announcement wiped out the positive sentiment from markets.

And the market sentiment was positive earlier. France’s and Germany’s leaders has met to discuss the possible changes to the European Union treaties, aiming for stronger fiscal integration. Such talks made way to hopes that the summit on December 9 will bring some solid plans to resolve the Eurozone debt crisis. But the prospects for the European credit ratings downgrade erased the optimism.

Copper price was down today from $3.5400 to $3.5135 per pound as of 1:44 GMT on COMEX. The metal was up from $3.6000 to $3.6200 per pound yesterday before falling to the closing price of $3.5440.

Copper fell as China’s manufacturing slowed. According to the HSBC/Markit report, China’s manufacturing declined in November with the fastest pace since March 2009. The Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped from 51.0 to 47.7 last month, the lowest level in 32 months.

The industrial metal may still rebound on the optimism about Europe and the positive economic data from the United States. The US manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 to 52.7 in November, while the construction spending advanced 0.8 percent, two times the forecast value.

Copper traded at $3.5315 per pound today as of 4:51 GMT on COMEX, following the yesterday’s drop from $3.5560 to $3.5255 per pound.