Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices - Corn

Corn futures fell in Chicago today, heading for a second straight weekly loss. May futures for corn delivery dropped $0.0275 (0.8 percent) to $3.625 per bushel as of 9:53 on CBoT.

Crude oil dropped amid falling confidence among U.S. consumers today. Earlier oil prices rose after retail sales went up 0.3 percent. Analysts forecasted that retails purchases will decline 0.2 percent. April delivery for crude oil slid $1.32 (1.6 percent) to $80.79 per barrel by 12:02 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On the daily chart of a corn a symmetrical triangle pattern has formed.The downward breakout is probable as this pattern tend to break in the direction of the previous trend. But symmetrical triangle can break in any direction, so you can wait for a breakout to see where the price is going and minimize the risk. Anyway, in this case the pattern is weak and, wherever the price will be going, movement should not be strong. Click the image to enlarge it to a full-size screenshot:

Wheat gained as U.S. farmers are cutting sales on anticipation that a weaker dollar will increase demand for the grain. Price was falling as global wheat supplies are increasing faster than world demand but low wheat planting this winter may cause lack of supplies, leading to rebound in price. May futures for wheat delivery rose $0.1125 (2.2 percent) to $5.1575 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn advanced on speculation that excessive rainfall may harm crops in Argentina. Price is supported by combination of a falling dollar, adverse weather and improving world stock markets, as well as by farmers, who are holding crops for higher prices. May futures for corn delivery jumped $0.0525 (1.4 percent) to $3.8675 per bushel in Chicago.

Gold may rise to $1,162 per ounce, according to technical analysis, in case prices hold above $1,135 level. The precious metal advanced 3.6 percent this year. Gold traded at $1,136.45 by 10:44 in London.

Corn, soybeans and sugar fell today as a stronger dollar curbed demand for commodities as an alternative investment. The dollar rose as much as 0.3 percent versus a basket of six major currencies. May futures for corn delivery slid $0.03 (0.8 percent) to $3.8325 per bushel by 12:02 on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery declined $0.15 (1.6 percent) to $9.48 per bushel on CBoT. May futures for raw-sugar delivery fell $0.007 (2.9 percent) to $0.237 per pound on ICE.

Wheat prices may decline 14 percent with start of new harvests in the next few months. World wheat production was predicted to reach 677.4 million metric tons. Russia, the third biggest grower in the world, plans to rise grain export by 32 percent in the next five years, putting even more strain on wheat prices. Analysts forecast that wheat may fall to $150 per ton.

Coffee may rise 21 percent in two months on lack of high quality supplies. The output in Columbia, the second largest grower in the world, fell to the lowest in 33 years because of adverse weather. Analysts predict that global demand will be about 131 million bags, while world production will be around 124 million bags in 2010. May futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.0515 (3.8 percent) to $1.319 per pound today in New York.

Corn and soybean prices advance with rising gasoline price, boosting the attractiveness of fuels produced from grain and oilseeds. Gasoline prices reached the highest level in five weeks, increasing demand for corn-based ethanol and biodiesel made from soybeans. May futures for corn delivery gained $0.11 (3 percent) to $3.8275 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.145 (1.5 percent) to $9.69 per bushel.

White sugar gained in London on signs that a global production deficit may persist, encouraging importers to increase inventories. Production of sugar cane in Brazil and India, the largest growers in the world, was hampered by adverse weather. Analysts forecast that global demand will exceed worldwide output by 9.4 million metric tons in the 2009–10 season. May delivery for white sugar rose $7.60 (1.1 percent) to $714.50 per metric ton on the Liffe exchange.

Wheat, soybeans and corn dropped in Chicago after the dollar gained, making purchases of U.S. crops unprofitable for traders, who are using other currencies. May delivery for wheat lost 1.3 percent to $4.9325 per bushel on CBoT by 12:34. Argentina, the third biggest soybean exporter in the world, may produce more soybeans than previously predicted record 52 million tons with the aid of rains. May delivery for soybeans declined 0.7 percent to $9.575 per bushel. Corn planting is expected to increase from 86.5 million acres last year to 89 million this year. May delivery for corn fell 0.7 percent to $3.6625 per bushel.

Corn and wheat slid today on speculation that demand is shifting from U.S. grain. Lower quality of U.S. corn crop may result in business shifting to supplies from competing nations. May futures for corn delivery fell $0.0225 (0.6 percent) to $3.695 per bushel by 10:26 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Cotton price reached the highest level since July 2008 on signs that the dollar will decline, increasing the demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation. The dollar dropped 0.2 percent versus a basket of six major currencies before rebounding. May futures for cotton delivery advanced $0.0037 (0.5 percent) to $0.7648 per pound as of 11:28 on ICE.

White sugar declined in London today as technicals signal that further drops may lie ahead. Prices also slid as the dollar rebounded, curbing appeal of commodities priced in U.S. currency. May delivery for white sugar slipped $10 (1.4 percent) to $704 per metric ton on the Liffe exchange.

Corn and soybeans gained today as farmers slowed sales after a price drop earlier this year. Drop in sales have led to decline of supplies for export and for producing fuel, animal feed and food. May futures for corn delivery added $0.0575 (1.5 percent) to $3.79 per bushel by 10:44 on the Chicago Board of Trade. March futures for soybean delivery rose $0.18 (1.9 percent) to $9.63 per bushel.

Corn is the most widely grown crop in the United States. 332 million metric tons of the crop are harvested annually in the U.S. What prospects are for the corn in 2010?

By the end of 2009 future seemed to be bright for corn prices as adverse weather caused late planting in the U.S. But everything has turned upside down when the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted that US corn production will reach a new record. USDA estimated 2009 corn crop as much as 13.15 billion bushels, while analysts forecast yield to be about 12.82 billion bushels. U.S. corn exports forecast went down by 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion bushels, further pushing down outlook for corn prices. U.S. exporters also have to deal with competition from Argentinean corn. Production of corn in Argentina may reach 17 million bushels, compared with estimated 12 million bushels, and at least 9 million bushels will be available for export. Slow recovery of U.S. economy does not help demand, and therefore prices, either.

Yet not everything looks dim for corn. Low prices improved exports by 20 percent this month. Recent reports about low soil moisture in Argentina corn growing areas are also supportive for corn prices. As you see, conditions can change significantly over small amount of time, making hard to say which price should be expected. USDA forecasted the price for the corn to be in a range of $2.90-$4.50 per bushel, suggesting with such a wide range that Department is unsure too. Analysts say that “there are not many fundamental reasons for high corn prices” and “technical support should not allow prices to fall much more”.

Corn rebounded from the lowest level in 16 weeks after the report that exports from the U.S., the biggest grower in the world, will rise. Exports went up 20 percent in the four weeks ended January 21st, compared with the previous year, after prices dropped 14 percent this month. Production of ethanol is also increasing. Analysts predict that low prices will spur demand. March futures for corn delivery added $0.01 (0.3 percent) to $3.5925 per bushel by 11:07 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Analysts say that gold is still bullish in long term, despite its fall 11 percent down from its record last month. The precious metal’s drop can be considered “a normal pullback” and ”the long-term momentum” is still present. Gold is little changed, erasing a previous gain of 5.9 percent, as the dollar rebounded versus the basket of six major currencies this month.