Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices – Rice

In his video interview to Bloomberg, Jonathan Barratt of Sydney based Commodity Broking Services Pty Ltd says that rice is currently offers a good value compared to other grains and commodities. Having fallen significantly during last few months it can now become an alternative to the overpriced wheat, while the problems with the supply will also help drive the price of rice upward. The combination of the bullish factors will also be complemented by the investment funds searching for a next rally in the commodity market.

The rice futures rallied today as the investors bet that the huge discount of this commodity’s prices compared to other grains will spur the demand and growth. As both wheat and corn may seem overbought to many investors to rally further, the funds are turning their heads to rice, which is currently the worst performing of all grains this year.

The floods in Pakistan and the drought in Thailand also contribute to the better outlook of the rice futures at least for the next few weeks. While wheat rose by about 100 percent since June this year, rice dropped about 1/4 of its price, resulting in the widest price gap since early 2008 for these two commodities. The traders believe that the current price may go up by almost a third by the end of the year and suggest looking at supply as the main moving factor. If the weather continues to press on, the rice will continue to rally.

September rice futures is trading near $11.27 per 100 pounds as of 15:37 GMT on CBoT. It rose from $10.94 or more than 3 percent today.

Copper prices jumped to the highest in six weeks as the weakening dollar and faster economic restoration signaled that demand for the metal used in pipes and wires may go up. The dollar slumped 0.8 percent against a basket of six major currencies. The decreasing jobless rate and supply concerns are also bolstering market. December futures for copper delivery jumped $0.104 (3.7 percent) to $2.8835 per pound by 11:57 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Protests against high prices for food, including rice, may again take place in Asia in 2010 because drought in India and crop losses in the Philippines may cause prices to jump. Drought in India may cut rice production by 18 percent to 81 million tons in the year beginning October 1st, causing less global supplies to be available for importers. Stockpiles may drop further as two storms in the Philippines, the biggest importer in the world, destroyed about 450,000 tons (7 percent) of the fourth-quarter rice crop. The contract for November rice delivery gained 0.6 percent to $13.305 per 100 pounds today in Chicago.

Rice exports from Thailand, the biggest shipper in the world, may exceed forecast this year and reach a record in 2010 because of high African demand and a lack of shipments from India. India cut rice shipments last year on concern about global shortage, leading to record prices for the grain. Same crises may happen as rising energy costs again spur commodity prices, including rice. Rice futures reached $13.30 per 100 pounds yesterday in Chicago.

Copper is falling in New York for a fifth-straight weekly decline, the longest slide in a year. December futures for copper delivery fell $0.051 (1.9 percent) to $2.686 per pound by 8:16 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.

Vietnam, the second-largest rice supplier, may export a record 6 million tons of rice this year. Vietnam’s rice exports are aided by a good harvest, low prices and large stockpiles. The price of Vietnam’s 5 percent broken-grain variety dropped to $398 per ton this month compared to $460 a ton in April, this is $163 a ton cheaper than price of rice in Thailand, greatest Vietnam’s rival. Global rice prices climbed to a record last year spurred by rising demand and cut in exports by some producers including Vietnam, which wanted to increase local supplies. Low prices for Vietnam’s rice may have not very great impact on global prices for rice considering decline in export’s from India because of drought.

Platinum gained because of concern that workers at Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the world’s second-largest producer of the metal, will strike in South Africa next week. Prices also rose as result of the dollar’s decline against the euro after German services and French manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in August boosting the attractiveness of the precious metals as a hedge against inflation. October futures for platinum delivery rose $13.10 (1.1 percent) to $1,255.10 per ounce by 12:25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.