Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices – Rice

Rice is expected to surge as the smallest increase of inventories in five years may create deficit on markets. Stockpiles increased only 1.1 percent this year, compared to 29 percent in the past four years. The estimates of the US Department of Agriculture predicts signal that supply, being 456.2 million metric tons, still exceeds demand (455.2 million tons). Yet market analysts predict that prices will jump 20 percent by the end of this year. So far, prices for rice advanced 15 percent from May.

Sugar fell today on the speculation that India will increase exports, causing supply to exceed demand. On the other hand, China and Indonesia are going to expand their purchases of the commodity, potentially supporting prices. October contract for delivery of raw sugar slipped $0.0022 (0.8 percent) to $0.2762 per pound as of 12:24 on ICE.

Corn, rice, soybeans, and wheat declined today as the earthquake in Japan caused speculation that demand for raw materials will wane. The commodities also weakened as the US Department of Agriculture predicted higher global supplies.

The 8.9-magnitude earthquake off the north coast of Japan shook buildings in Tokyo and caused multiple deaths. On the other positive side, specialists say that the disaster most likely won’t cause a long-term damage to supplies in the country.

World stockpiles of wheat will reach 181.9 million metric tons by the end of the marketing year on May 31, according to the USDA forecast. Corn stockpiles expected to advance from 122.5 million tons last month to 123.1 million tons, because of the better harvests in Brazil. Rice inventories may reach 98.8 million tons, the highest level in eight years.

May futures for corn delivery slipped $0.1475 (2.2 percent) to $6.68 per bushel as of 10:07 on CBoT, the biggest decline since November 12. May delivery for rice fell $0.425 (3.3 percent) to $12.625 per 100 pounds after it touched $12.55, the lowest level since October. May futures for soybean delivery went down $0.18 (1.3 percent) to $13.375 per bushel. The prices declined this week 5.4 percent, the biggest weekly decline since October 1. May delivery for wheat subtracted $0.14 (1.9 percent) to $7.265 per bushel, posting a weekly decline of 13 percent, the biggest drop since December 2008.

Rice climbed as governments increased their stockpiles to prevent surge of the prices for food, like the one that caused the protest in North Africa and Middle East. Japan purchased 68,000 metric tons of rice from the US, Australia and Thailand. Bangladesh, the largest consumer in South Asia, is seeking supply from India to boost food security. May delivery for rice gained $0.5 (3.6 percent) to $14.31 per 100 pounds as of 11:45 on CBoT.

Gold and silver retreated after the longest rally since August. The uncertainty caused by the tensions in North Africa and Middle East, which boosted the prices for the precious metals, persists and the metals declined most likely because traders took profit from the high prices. The upward momentum remains in place and the prices will likely continue to rise in the future. April futures for gold delivery dropped $6.50 (0.5 percent) to $1,409.30 per ounce by 13:43 on COMEX.

In his video interview to Bloomberg, Jonathan Barratt of Sydney based Commodity Broking Services Pty Ltd says that rice is currently offers a good value compared to other grains and commodities. Having fallen significantly during last few months it can now become an alternative to the overpriced wheat, while the problems with the supply will also help drive the price of rice upward. The combination of the bullish factors will also be complemented by the investment funds searching for a next rally in the commodity market.

The rice futures rallied today as the investors bet that the huge discount of this commodity’s prices compared to other grains will spur the demand and growth. As both wheat and corn may seem overbought to many investors to rally further, the funds are turning their heads to rice, which is currently the worst performing of all grains this year.

The floods in Pakistan and the drought in Thailand also contribute to the better outlook of the rice futures at least for the next few weeks. While wheat rose by about 100 percent since June this year, rice dropped about 1/4 of its price, resulting in the widest price gap since early 2008 for these two commodities. The traders believe that the current price may go up by almost a third by the end of the year and suggest looking at supply as the main moving factor. If the weather continues to press on, the rice will continue to rally.

September rice futures is trading near $11.27 per 100 pounds as of 15:37 GMT on CBoT. It rose from $10.94 or more than 3 percent today.

Copper prices jumped to the highest in six weeks as the weakening dollar and faster economic restoration signaled that demand for the metal used in pipes and wires may go up. The dollar slumped 0.8 percent against a basket of six major currencies. The decreasing jobless rate and supply concerns are also bolstering market. December futures for copper delivery jumped $0.104 (3.7 percent) to $2.8835 per pound by 11:57 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Protests against high prices for food, including rice, may again take place in Asia in 2010 because drought in India and crop losses in the Philippines may cause prices to jump. Drought in India may cut rice production by 18 percent to 81 million tons in the year beginning October 1st, causing less global supplies to be available for importers. Stockpiles may drop further as two storms in the Philippines, the biggest importer in the world, destroyed about 450,000 tons (7 percent) of the fourth-quarter rice crop. The contract for November rice delivery gained 0.6 percent to $13.305 per 100 pounds today in Chicago.

Rice exports from Thailand, the biggest shipper in the world, may exceed forecast this year and reach a record in 2010 because of high African demand and a lack of shipments from India. India cut rice shipments last year on concern about global shortage, leading to record prices for the grain. Same crises may happen as rising energy costs again spur commodity prices, including rice. Rice futures reached $13.30 per 100 pounds yesterday in Chicago.

Copper is falling in New York for a fifth-straight weekly decline, the longest slide in a year. December futures for copper delivery fell $0.051 (1.9 percent) to $2.686 per pound by 8:16 on the New York Mercantile Exchange’s Comex division.

Vietnam, the second-largest rice supplier, may export a record 6 million tons of rice this year. Vietnam’s rice exports are aided by a good harvest, low prices and large stockpiles. The price of Vietnam’s 5 percent broken-grain variety dropped to $398 per ton this month compared to $460 a ton in April, this is $163 a ton cheaper than price of rice in Thailand, greatest Vietnam’s rival. Global rice prices climbed to a record last year spurred by rising demand and cut in exports by some producers including Vietnam, which wanted to increase local supplies. Low prices for Vietnam’s rice may have not very great impact on global prices for rice considering decline in export’s from India because of drought.

Platinum gained because of concern that workers at Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., the world’s second-largest producer of the metal, will strike in South Africa next week. Prices also rose as result of the dollar’s decline against the euro after German services and French manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in August boosting the attractiveness of the precious metals as a hedge against inflation. October futures for platinum delivery rose $13.10 (1.1 percent) to $1,255.10 per ounce by 12:25 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.