Commodity Blog

Commodity Prices – Wheat

Copper extended its rally today after data on nonfarm payrolls eased concerns for US economy. The report on employment change released today showed much smaller decline of work places than was estimated (54,000 compared to predicted 101,000). December futures for copper delivery advanced $0.0125 (0.4 percent) to $3.508 per pound by 10:24 on COMEX.

Wheat prices advanced today as demand for supplies from the US increased after Russia extended its ban on exports. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced yesterday that Russia would extend a grain-export ban till the end of the next harvest. At the same time, US exporters sold 110,000 metric tons of wheat to Egypt and 275,000 tons to other buyers. Global stockpiles may fall to 174.8 million tons by the end of the marketing year on May 31st. December futures for wheat delivery gained $0.1775 (2.5 percent) to $7.315 per bushel at 10:33 on CBoT.

Crude oil fell today as decline of service industries in the US caused speculation that demand may drop. The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers’ Index showed a decrease from 54.3 to 51.5 in August. October delivery for crude oil fell $1.51 (2 percent) to $73.51 per barrel as of 11:53 on NYMEX.

Raw-sugar futures gained today on concerns that drought may threaten harvest in Brazil, the largest producer. Harvest of sugar-cane in Brazil’s Center South, the biggest growing region in the world, may be lower than estimated 570 million metric tons if dry weather persists. October delivery for raw sugar rose $0.0063 (3.2 percent) to $0.2038 per pound as of 10:48 on ICE.

While in some countries wheat harvest is also threatened by drought, in Europe wheat faces other danger: excessive rains. Wheat prices jumped on speculation that Germany and some other countries of the Western European Union would have too much rain and also after Egypt bought 225,000 metric tons of wheat from the US. December futures for wheat delivery gained $0.23 (3.4 percent) to $7.0875 per bushel by 13:15 on CBoT.

Crude oil prices jumped today after manufacturing in the US and China expanded in August faster than expected. ISM PMI in the US rose from 55.5 to 56.3 in August. October settlement for crude oil (Brent) went up $1.71 (2.3 percent) to $76.35 per barrel on ICE.

Wheat prices hit the highest level in a week today on an outlook for reduced output from Argentina and Russia because of drought. Global inventories may decline 9.9 percent to 174.8 million metric tons. December futures for wheat delivery gained $0.215 (3.1 percent) to $7.165 per bushel as of 11:21 on CBoT. Concerns about adverse weather boosted wheat futures, causing them to rise 45 percent since the end of June.

Gold fluctuated today, but expected to resume its rally as faltering economic recovery and declining US equities increased demand for the metal as a safe haven. US stocks dropped after a government report showed that personal income rose less than predicted. The gross domestic product rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, less than estimated in the previous month. December futures for gold delivery slid $0.5 to $1,237.40 per ounce by 11:25 on COMEX. Gold prices advanced 13 percent this year, touching the record level of $1,266.50 per ounce in June.

Wheat prices fell today as Canada’s government report predicted that production would decline less than previously estimated. Canadian wheat output will decrease 15 percent, compared to previous estimates of a 17 percent decline. Wheat prices surged earlier after Russia banned exports because of worst drought in about half-a-century. December futures for wheat delivery slid $0.06 (0.8 percent) to $7.0825 per bushel as of 10:21 on CBoT.

Gold slipped together with other commodities today as signs slower global economic growth caused investors to sell commodities and equities. Stronger dollar also pushed gold prices lower. Reports this week increased concerns that US economy may experience double-dip recession. Next week can also bring news, as reports expected to show that sales of existing homes in the US decreased, growth of exports from Japan slowed and German business confidence weakened. December futures for gold delivery went down $7.10 (0.6 percent) to $1,228.30 per ounce by 11:19 COMEX.

In this interview, Jonathan Barratt of Commodity Broking Services Pty Ltd talks about how wheat has already reached its highest levels for the years as the funds were guided by the fear of droughts, lack of export and other speculative drivers. Meanwhile the real fundamentals suggest that the wheat shouldn’t be appreciating as it has been doing before.

The author of this commodity trading video sees a shorting opportunity in the ongoing rally in the wheat market. He uses techniques developed by Larry Williams to prove his point and offer some basic trading plan to you. The whole analysis is based on a few simple technical chart indicators.

Corn and wheat advanced today on concern that drought in Russia may curb supplies and prompt traders to turn to U.S. crops. The harvest expected to be below 80 million metric tons and some analysts reduce their forecasts even below 70 million tons, while previously forecasts promised the harvest to be above 85 million tons or even above 90 million. Low supplies may cause Russian government to restrict exports of crops.

Chad Henderson, a market analyst for Prime Consultants Inc. said:

The Russian crop problems are not just about wheat. The trend has shifted from rising inventories to declining supplies.

With decreasing supplies from Russia, traders may shift their attention to U.S. crops. U.S. the largest exporter of corn and wheat, while corn is the biggest U.S. crop.

December futures for corn delivery gained $0.0225 (0.6 percent) to $3.8025 per bushel on CBoT, after touching yesterday the lowest level since July 1. September futures for wheat delivery went up $0.0525 (0.9 percent) to $5.9475 per bushel as of 10:19.

Wheat reached 13-month high levels today as the weather troubles continue to remain a major concern of the main commodity suppliers across the world. It also looks unlikely that China or India will sell from their wheat stockpiles to satisfy the global demand.

Floods in Canada and droughts in Australia, France, Kazakhstan and Russia threaten the grain production in those regions. According to the market researchers, the wheat production in Western Australia is to fall by 9.5 million ton this year. Russian exports may be decreased by the government limits this year as the crops are falling there.

Despite the fact that the world consumers will have to buy more grain from the southern hemisphere this year, such big holders of the wheat stockpiles as China and India will probably refrain from parting with them. Analysts believe that the prices will stop rising so fast only if some other exporters will cover the supply deficit. Technical analysis factors support the bullish point of view.

Wheat went up from $586.25 to $599.50 as of 16:33 GMT on CBoT today, a spike to $609.75 was recorded earlier.

Soybeans gained for the third straight session, erasing the previous losses, after the report showed that U.S. exports rosed in the previous week. In the week ended July 8 the U.S. Department of Agriculture inspected 6.515 million bushels intended for export, more than double compared to the week before. U.S. stockpiles estimated to total 175 million bushels on August 31st, 5.4 percent less than forecast in June. November futures for soybean delivery added $0.0275 (0.3 percent) to $9.56 per bushel as of 12:05 on CBoT.

Wheat gained, erasing the previous declines, on forecast that drought in Russia would curb global supply. Dry weather in Russia, the fourth largest grower in the world, harmed more than half the grain planted in 11 regions. The drought, which is to be worst in a decade, may persist for the rest of July. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.0075 (0.1 percent) to $5.3875 per bushel by 12:13 on CBoT.

Wheat rose today on speculation that dry weather in Western Europe and in countries near Black Sea would damage output. Wheat is heading for the sixth consecutive gain. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.0115 (0.2 percent) to $5.3175 per bushel by 10:06 on CBoT.

Copper futures dropped in New York, paring previous gains, concerns resurfaced that slower economic growth would damp demand for the industrial metal. The International Monetary Fund stated yesterday that “recent global stability gains are threatened” by the European debt crisis. September futures for copper delivery slid $0.007 (0.2 percent) to $3.008 per pound as of 11:41 on COMEX.

Orange-juice futures dropped on forecast that production in Florida, the second-largest producer in the world, would be bigger than previously expected. The harvest, that ends this month, estimated to be 134 million boxes, compared to the June estimates of 133.6 million. September delivery for orange juice slipped $0.0765 (5.3 percent) to $1.3785 per pound by 13:00 on ICE.