Commodity Blog

The technical analysis, that includes the indicators’ data and major pivot points for Brent Oil, Gold, Silver and Copper as traded on spot market as of August 28th 2010:

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 14:08 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $74.52
Gold — $1,233.16
Silver — $18.93
Palladium — $496.00
Platinum — $1,524.52
Copper — $7,306.00
Aluminum — $2,014.00
Nickel — $20,555.00
Zinc — $2,040.00
Cocoa — $2,661.00
Sugar — $19.43
Corn — $421.00
Soybean — $39.41

Despite falling down for the first two days of the week, the crude oil is managing to show a positive weekly advancement as of today, while the current daily gain isn’t something exceptional. As with the Forex pair of EUR/USD, GDP data helps.

Oil is a perfect bet when the market believes in the economic growth or recovery. Today we’ve got another proof of that, as the oil rose despite having a moderate weakness; the riskier traders bought it before the GDP release in the United States (1.6 percent growth in Q2 2010). During the first two days of the week, oil lost about 2.8 percent of its value but, starting from Wednesday, it’s showing a moderately strong rally.

This year, the level of $70/barrel looks to be a major bottom limit for this commodity — it was proven for the 4th time this week. Analysts hope that in the near future we’ll hear some positive growth-assuring rhetoric from the world’s officials and that it will be able to support the oil prices further. At the same time, further increases on the oil inventories (and this week we’ve witnessed a report for more than 4.1 million barrel gain in US) can put the prices at risk.

Crude oil (Brent) is now trading near $75.29 per barrel as of 13:21 GMT, going up from $74.85 open price. It traded at as low as $71.75 on Wednesday.

The silver rose to a new maximum level in almost two months today as the investors were attracted into buying this commodity due to it relatively cheap ratio compared to gold. The gold/silver ratio declines significantly.

Although precious metals aren’t traded in pairs, silver and other such commodities is often compared with each other to find the good investment opportunities, taking ratios into account. Silver benefits as another safe haven asset after the gold and also as an industrial metal, so it’s usually valued at a same ratio compared with gold and when it offers some opportunity investors go in.

Analysts believe that the current level of silver is “too cheap”. Some of them expect an almost forgotten level of $20 soon, which would be the highest price for this metal since early 2008. While gold is trading quite close to its all-time maximums, for silver that’s still not the case.

Spot silver prices rose from $18.88 to $19.09 as of 15:54 GMT today. It’s value ratio with gold is about 64.7, which is still quite high.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 15:36 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $75.10
Gold — $1,238.74
Silver — $19.09
Palladium — $503.50
Platinum — $1,528.52
Copper — $7,301.00
Aluminum — $2,035.00
Nickel — $20,598.00
Zinc — $2,045.00
Cocoa — $2,711.00
Sugar — $19.81
Corn — $412.50
Soybean — $39.48

Gold reached a new high level since July 1st today as the investors continued to bet on the weaker global growth and bought save haven assets, including the bonds, some currencies and all the precious metals.

Gold takes a prominent position among the commodities — unlike crude oil (which is reacting quite badly to the latest recession signals), the gold futures are the major beneficiary of the ongoing market uncertainty. It’s rising for the second day in a row today, with the beginning of its latest uptrend wave being on July 28. Gold is a nice alternative to the bonds with more volatility and margin trading.

The commodity is going up along with the silver, palladium and platinum. We’ll continue to witness a strong positive correlation between the gold and the US treasuries in the future. Tom Pawlicki of MF Global Ltd. said about it:

Gold can continue to compete with Treasuries for investment as opportunity costs of holding gold are low due to falling interest rates.

Spot gold is now trading at $1,238.74 as of 17:29 GMT after closing at $1,229.92 yesterday. The historical maximum for the gold is located at $1,264.78.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 16:49 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $72.52
Gold — $1,238.86
Silver — $18.80
Palladium — $488.50
Platinum — $1,513.80
Copper — $7,094.00
Aluminum — $2,001.00
Nickel — $20,100.00
Zinc — $1,967.00
Cocoa — $2,718.00
Sugar — $20.28
Corn — $403.25
Soybean — $39.22

Crude oil fell to its new minimum level since July 7 today as the traders reacted to the speculations about the stalling global economic recovery and sold the commodity after the US housing report showed a decline in the existing home sales to the lowest level in the index history.

The oil is quite sensitive to the pace of the global growth, and if new signals of the feared second wave of the recession loom on the horizon, speculators tend to sell their crude contracts as soon as possible. Being one of the most speculatively traded commodity is a nice advantage during the growing market but it’s a bane during the time when the annual rate of the home sales falls by more than 25 percent in one month in United States.

Today is the fifth straight bearish day for the oil. Since the end of the recent rally (August 4), the commodity had only two bullish daily trading sessions. The analysts forecast a growth of the crude oil inventories for the last week (the report will be released tomorrow). Under the increased supply’s pressure, the prices will probably continue going down.

Spot oil (Brent) is current trading at $72.75 per barrel as of 15:22 GMT. It closed at $73.65 yesterday and touched as low as $72.20 earlier today.

Latest commodity prices (ICE, NYMEX, CME) as of 15:03 GMT:

Oil (Brent) — $72.90
Gold — $1,232.45
Silver — $18.38
Palladium — $481.00
Platinum — $1,507.97
Copper — $7,151.00
Aluminum — $2,030.00
Nickel — $20,700.00
Zinc — $2,004.30
Cocoa — $2,757.00
Sugar — $19.40
Corn — $407.75
Soybean — $39.09

In his video interview to Bloomberg, Jonathan Barratt of Sydney based Commodity Broking Services Pty Ltd says that rice is currently offers a good value compared to other grains and commodities. Having fallen significantly during last few months it can now become an alternative to the overpriced wheat, while the problems with the supply will also help drive the price of rice upward. The combination of the bullish factors will also be complemented by the investment funds searching for a next rally in the commodity market.