The scenario of a price surge doesn’t look likely. Lower output in countries hit by bad weather may be outweighed by production in such countries as the US, Canada and Australia. Even in countries like Russia and European Union, where crops were harmed by weather, improving weather boosts prospect for winter wheat. Global inventories of wheat also remain plentiful, making possibility of a deficit very low.

Global output is expected to total from 643 million metric tons to 644 million. Global inventories are predicted to reach 177.8 million tons this month and 183 million by the end of this year. Global wheat consumption is estimated in a range from 657 million ton to 661.2 million. Prices forecast to remain mainly in a range of $4.95-$5.65 per bushel.
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Gold slipped together with other commodities today as signs slower global economic growth caused investors to sell commodities and equities. Stronger dollar also pushed gold prices lower. Reports this week increased concerns that US economy may experience double-dip recession. Next week can also bring news, as reports expected to show that sales of existing homes in the US decreased, growth of exports from Japan slowed and German business confidence weakened. December futures for gold delivery went down $7.10 (0.6 percent) to $1,228.30 per ounce by 11:19 COMEX.
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Wheat futures rose today for the first time in a week also on outlook for adverse weather. As much as 12.5 million acres of grain were prevented from being planted in Canada because of rainfall. The output from the U.S. and Russia may also be lower because of adverse weather. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.0175 (0.4 percent) to $4.775 per bushel on CBoT.

Copper prices gained today as government reports signaled that demand may be higher then economic indicators previously suggested. Cores durable goods orders rose by 0.9 percent in May and unemployment claims dropped from 476,000 to 457,000 last week, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery strengthens. On the negative side we have unexpected plunge of new home sales from 446,000 to 300,000, which may curb gains of the metal prices. September futures for copper delivery added $0.0695 (2.4 percent) to $3.024 per pound on COMEX.
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Sugar dropped today from its highest level in seven weeks as traders think that prices rallied too much. Analysts say that fundamentals remain unchanged and the decline is just correction after an excessive rally. October delivery for raw sugar slipped $0.0045 (2.8 percent) to $0.156 per pound on ICE.

Arabica-coffee also declined on the opinion that its rally was overdone. Experts have divided opinions on an optimal price level for Arabica-coffee. Some say that current price is where it has to be, while others argue that fundamentals are pointing to higher price. September delivery for Arabica-coffee slid $0.018 (1.1 percent) to $1.578 per pound on ICE.
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Coffee futures touched a record in 15 months on outlook that yield will drop in Brazil and Vietnam, the largest producers in the world. Coffee prices may also rise with colder weather boosting demand. March futures for Arabica-coffee delivery increased $0.0135 (0.9 percent) to $1.4725 per pound on ICE.

Wheat slid as the stronger dollar forced down demand for exports from the U.S. As crop is being harvested in Australia, while some countries like Canada and France also have wheat for sale, it looks like supply just exceeds demand. March futures for wheat delivery slid $0.0675 (1.2 percent) to $5.3675 per bushel on CBT.
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