Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘China’

Copper gained today on positive data from the United States, while China is going to ease requirements for lenders. The International Monetary Fund plans to boost funds available for helping troubled countries to $1 trillion, possibly aiming to help endangered European economies.

US industrial production expanded 0.4 percent in December. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed that manufacturing advanced this month. There are more reports this week that should show positive developments in the US economy.

Futures for delivery of copper in three months advanced 1.6 percent to $8,372 per metric ton on LME, the highest settlement since September 21, before trading at $8,332.50. That was the fourth day of gains.

Commodities advanced today as German economic confidence improved, while China’s economic growth slowed, spurring speculation about stimulus. Oil, corn and soybeans were among gainers.

China’s gross domestic product increased 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, following the 9.1 percent expansion in the third quarter. That was the slowest growth in 10 quarters. The report fueled talks that the country will perform measures to stimulate economic growth.

ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany increased from -53.8 to -56.1 (month-on-month) in January, the highest level since July 2011. Economic expectations for the eurozone improved to -32.5 this month from -54.1 in the month before.

Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings of several European countries on January 13. Markets were downbeat somewhat after the action, but quickly recovered as such move was expected and generally priced in.

February futures for delivery of crude oil advanced $2.01 (2 percent) to $100.71 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent oil rose from $111.42 to $111.57 per barrel as of 23:54 GMT today on ICE. Corn price was higher from $6.0125 to $6.0600 per bushel on CBoT today, while soybeans rallied from $11.6300 to $11.8275 per bushel.

Gold and oil rose today, as well as most commodities, as manufacturing in China and the United States expanded. Silver also gained. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing reported that the nation’s Purchasing Managers’ Index increased from 49.0 to 50.3 in December. The US PMI advanced from 52.7 to 53.9 last month.

Both commodities also gained on rumors that Iran made headway in creating nuclear weapon. Gold rallied as the rumors increased its appeal as a safe asset, while oil rose on concerns that sanctions against the country from the USA would disrupt shipments.

February futures for crude oil delivery advanced as much as $4.13 to $102.96 per barrel on NYMEX, the highest price since May 10. Brent crude surged from $108.38 to $112.07 per barrel today as of 23:18 GMT on ICE. Gold was up from $1,570.10 to $1,606.70 per ounce, while silver spot price went higher from $28.17 to $29.55 per ounce on COMEX.

Oil fell as China’s manufacturing decline. The HSBC/Markit China Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.0 to 48.7 in December. A value below 50.0 indicates contraction. Europe also continued to hurt commodities. February futures for delivery of crude oil fell $0.82 to $98.83 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent fell from $108.04 to $107.76 per barrel on ICE.

Copper performed better on hopes that the US economic growth would outweigh the problems in Europe and the slowdown in China. The US PMI is expected to post a positive reading next week. The US economy grew 1.8 percent this year and analysts predict that it’ll expand 2.1 percent in 2011. Copper advanced from $3.4220 to $3.4315 per pound on COMEX.

Crude oil went down to the five-week low and Brent dropped to the two-month minimum as the concerns for Europe intensified, fueling fears that the global economic growth would falter. The yield on the Italian and Spanish bonds increased. Germany opposed the idea to boost the European Stability Mechanism (Europe’s bailout fund). The indecisiveness of the European politician continues to hurt markets.

There were other reasons for the drop of oil. OPEC increased its production ceiling for the first time in three years. China’s manufacturing continued to decline this month, albeit with slower pace. China’s Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 in December from 47.7 in November, according to the flash HSBC/Markit estimate.

January futures for crude oil rose $0.01 to $94.96 per barrel, in electronic trading on NYMEX, following yesterday’s 5.2 percent drop to $94.95, the lowest closing price since November 4. Brent traded at $106.14 per barrel as of 4:33 GMT today on ICE after it tumbled during yesterday’s trading session from $109.47 to $104.83.

Corn and soybeans gained today on the speculation that the recent slump of the price will spur demand from makers of food and fuel. Prices for cattle and hogs jumped this year, potentially prompting farmers to increase their herds and to buy more animal feed as a result. The drought in Argentina can reduce supply, further boosting the agricultural commodity. On the other hand, forecasters say that the drought in Brazil may soon end and that can reduce the impact of lower supply from Argentina.

Corn was up from $5.8000 to $5.8575 per bushel on CBoT today, following the intraday drop to $5.7000 per bushel. Soybean price advanced from $11.2550 to $11.3000 per bushel today after falling earlier to $11.2025 per bushel.

Wheat was a different story as it declined on the forecast that the demand will decrease, while stockpiles will grow, yet the crop was also trying to erase its losses by the end of the trading session. Economists expect China to reduce its wheat import as the nation’s economy is slowing. Market forecasters predict that the report of the US Department of Agriculture on December 9 will show that the global wheat inventories rose 202.89 million tons, compared to the November estimate of 202.6 million tons.

Wheat closed at $5.9775 per bushel on CBoT down from the opening price of $6.0050, but significantly above the daily low of $5.8825.

Copper fell as China’s manufacturing slowed. According to the HSBC/Markit report, China’s manufacturing declined in November with the fastest pace since March 2009. The Purchasing Managers’ Index dropped from 51.0 to 47.7 last month, the lowest level in 32 months.

The industrial metal may still rebound on the optimism about Europe and the positive economic data from the United States. The US manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 to 52.7 in November, while the construction spending advanced 0.8 percent, two times the forecast value.

Copper traded at $3.5315 per pound today as of 4:51 GMT on COMEX, following the yesterday’s drop from $3.5560 to $3.5255 per pound.

Crude oil rallied after the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank agreed to lower interest rates on dollar swaps among banks. Analysts viewed this move as a measure to help European banks in funding their dollar reserves. Market commentators warned that the rally may be short-term as nothing changed fundamentally. January contract for delivery of crude rose $0.18 to $100.54 per barrel in electronic trading on NYMEX. Brent traded at $110.63 per barrel today as of 3:31 GMT on ICE after falling yesterday from $110.78 to $110.37 per barrel.

Corn also advanced, but its gains were limited on the outlook for higher supply from South America. On the other hand, economists argue that lower price may prompt China to expand its import, boosting demand for the agricultural commodity. Corn spot price rose from $6.0275 to $6.0450 per bushel today on CBoT.

The developments in the global economy continue to put downward pressure on commodities. As a result, soybeans touched the lowest level in 13 months today, while iron ore is expected to follow other commodities in decline.

The members of the US congressional debt-reducing supercommittee failed to reach agreement about budget cuts. Germany’s Finance Ministry admitted that the country’s economic growth became “noticeably slower”.

China may increase its imports of soybeans, supporting prices, but for now the negative fundamentals have upper hand. As for iron ore, even China isn’t going to support the commodity as demand in the Asian nation wanes.

Soybean settlement was at $11.5025 per bushel as of 9:24 GMT today on CBoT after falling yesterday from $11.7100 to $11.4575 per bushel and touching today $11.4100 per bushel — the lowest level since October 8, 2010.

Spot price for ore climbed to $147.40 per metric ton yesterday. Prices were up 24 percent this month, while ore dropped 31 percent in October and analysts predict it’ll resume its decline next month.

Oil declined today as the signs of slower economic growth in China and concerns about the situation in Europe caused speculation that demand for fuel will decline.

The optimism, caused by the revealing the plans for rescuing Greece and other indebted nations of the European Union, quickly evaporated and traders still are caution, resulting in sluggish trading. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he’s going to put the bailout plans for Greece to a referendum. The country may face a default in case the referendum would result in negative vote.

China’s Purchasing Manager’s Index declined to 50.4 in October from 51.2 in the month before, while an increase was predicted. The data from the US was also negative as the Chicago PMI also declined. A decline was expected, but only to 59.2, while the index actually fell to 58.4 in October from 60.4 in September.

Brent crude oil fell from $109.44 to $108.90 per barrel today as of 2:54 on ICE, following the drop from $110.14 to $109.19 yesterday.