Prices touched the highest level in 13 years yesterday on concern that unfavorable weather may decrease output in Vietnam and Colombia. Earlier prices fell as a stronger dollar diminished demand for commodities as an alternative investment. Analysts say that prices for cocoa may yet fall in case the dollar would regain its strength.

December delivery for cocoa gained $29 (1 percent) to $2,846 per metric ton by 12:03 on ICE. Cocoa gained 1.5 percent this week.
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White sugar also rose today on speculation that Russia may increase its imports of the sweetener. Russia’s imports of raw sugar may jump as much as 300,000 tons before end of this year. December delivery for white sugar gained $2.70 (0.4 percent) to $698 per ton on NYSE Liffe.
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In fact, analysts expect the so-called Oil Peak. Global production probably isn’t ready to satisfy quickly growing demand. While developed countries are expected to keep their consumption of oil on stable level or even experience a slight decline of demand, developing countries, primarily China and India significantly accelerate the rate of their consumption, leading to noticeable jump in the global demand in coming years. China’s oil demand has increased 28% over a year by January 2010. In the same time, any noticeable increase of production isn’t expected. OPEC considers their current level of production in target range and isn’t planning to expand it. There is expected an increase of output from Non-OPEC producers, but it’s unlikely that their supply will be enough to satisfy the ever-growing demand. New sources of oil, like findings in Brazil, Columbia and Mexico looks perspective, but it may take a lot of time before the actual drilling will begin.

The growth of oil prices may be not very noticeable in the next two years as the economies worldwide are struggling to recover. Crude oil prices averaged $84 per barrel in April 2010. Oil prices will average about $84 per barrel over the second half of 2010 and rise to $87 by the end of 2011. By 2015 consumption should exceed supply by 10 million barrels per day (MBD). By 2030 the global demand will reach 118 MDB, while producers will be able to supply only 110 MBD. Barring any unexpected major occurrence, like developing and implementing some new sort of fuel instead of conventional gasoline and diesel fuel or significant easily accessible find, by 2030 crude oil price will soar above $100 per barrel level, maybe even jumping as high as $150 per barrel.
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Corn and soybean prices advance with rising gasoline price, boosting the attractiveness of fuels produced from grain and oilseeds. Gasoline prices reached the highest level in five weeks, increasing demand for corn-based ethanol and biodiesel made from soybeans. May futures for corn delivery gained $0.11 (3 percent) to $3.8275 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.145 (1.5 percent) to $9.69 per bushel.
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Sugar rose on speculation that farmers in India will not significantly increase planting of cane. A less-than-expected increase in planting area can lead to import of sugar by India, supporting prices. March futures for raw-sugar delivery rose 1.8 percent to $0.2707 per pound on ICE.
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Coffee futures tumbled to the two-week low as the dollar gained, curbing the demand for commodities as an alternative investment. Coffee has gained 21 percent in 2009 as the dollar slid and supplies of coffee beans from Brazil and Colombia declined. Analysts forecast that commodities may fall in the next few weeks as China is going to raise interest rates. March futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.017 (1.2 percent) to $1.392 per pound on ICE.
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Orange-juice futures slid on speculation that warm weather in Florida, the second largest orange grower in the world, is lowering the risk that cold will harm citrus plants. As concern about frost damage recedes volatility is returning to the market. March futures for orange-juice delivery dropped $0.027 (2 percent) to $1.337 per pound by 12:31 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.
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Wheat advanced, erasing previous losses, as demand rises amongst hedge funds and other investors for the futures as an inflation hedge. Need for food ingredients don’t fall much during inflation periods, thus making wheat quite a safe investment. Speculation suggests that wheat will fare better than other investments as the dollar declines. December futures for wheat delivery advance $0.0475 (0.9 percent) to $5.5675 per bushel by 11:40 on the Chicago Board of Trade.
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Wheat stockpiles in the U.S. before the next harvest will exceed forecast with declining exports and falling global demand. Forecast for unsold supplies on May 31st is 864 million bushels, 16 percent up from a September forecast of 743 million and up from 657 million this year. December delivery for wheat gained $0.1075 (2.3 percent) to $4.74 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.
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