Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘crude oil inventories’

Wheat gained on speculation that futures will advance, causing investors, who had bet on price decline, to buy back contracts and to close out positions. Speculative long positions in wheat futures were outnumbered by short positions by as much as 51,195 contracts in the week ended February 16th in Chicago. May futures for wheat delivery added $0.1025 (2 percent) to $5.14 per bushel by 10:16 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Crude oil gained on signals that fuel demand may rise in the U.S. as economy recovers. Price was also aided by the dollar’s decline against the euro. The number of tankers used as floating storage for crude oil and diesel dropped 20 percent in January. April delivery for crude oil went up $1.70 (2.2 percent) to $79.87 per barrel as of 10:41 on NYMEX.

Wheat futures slid on speculation that the stronger dollar and growing global stockpiles will cut demand for the U.S. grain. U.S. government forecast that world wheat inventories will rise 19 percent to 195.9 million metric tons in the year ending May 31st, the record level since 2002. May futures for wheat delivery slid $0.075 (1.4 percent) to $5.12 per bushel by 10:25 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Crude oil fluctuated as the dollar rebounded versus the euro, equities rose more than predicted and on speculation about the global economic recovery. U.S. Energy Department reported that U.S. supplies of crude oil rose 1.73 million barrels last week. March delivery for crude oil dropped $0.18 to $76.83 per barrel as of 10:53 on NYMEX.

Cattle futures tumbled from a 15-month record as U.S. wholesale prices for the meat reached a highest in four-weeks, signaling that retailers may slow purchases of beef. Wholesale choice beef rose 0.6 percent to $1.4486 per pound, the highest price since January 20th, as cold weather in the U.S. reduced cattle-weight gains and diminished beef supplies. April delivery for cattle futures subtracted $0.002 to $0.91975 per pound at 11:23 on CME.

Oil gained after forecast about winter storms in the U.S. this week. The National Weather Service is predicting that temperatures will be below average for the next 6–10 days. According to weather forecast Washington temperatures will be 10 degrees Fahrenheit (12 degrees Celsius) below normal as of February 14th, while New York will be 8 degrees below average by February 13th.

U.S. inventories of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, decreased last week after temperatures fell. OPEC governor stated today that global oil supplies are enough to satisfy demand for the first half of 2010.

March delivery for crude oil advanced $0.73 cents (1 percent) to $71.92 per barrel by 11:58 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. March delivery for heating oil rose $0.016 (0.9 percent) to $1.8908 per gallon. March settlement for Brent crude gained $0.61 (0.9 percent) to $70.20 per barrel on ICE. Hedge-funds and other large speculators reduced bets on increasing oil prices for a third week.

Sugar futures rose in New York, continuing a rally to the record price in 29 years, on concern that supplies will shrink as worldwide demand exceeds production. Sugar price more than doubled in the previous year as drought in India and excess rainfalls in Brazil have cut cane yield. Analysts say that “a deficit in the sugar market will help the commodity to outperform a lot of the softs”. March futures for raw-sugar delivery gained $0.004 (1.4 percent) to $0.2802 per pound as of 9:52 a.m. on ICE

Crude oil fluctuated after forecasts that temperature in the northern U.S. will rise next week. About four-fifths of the U.S. heating oil consuming depends on the weather in the northeastern U.S. U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuel, including diesel and heating oil, slid 1.78 million barrels last week. February delivery for crude oil dropped $0.04 to $81.47 per barrel by 10:49 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude oil gained in New York, touching a record level in 10 years, as cold weather in the U.S. pushed up prices for heating oil. Frosts will spread over the U.S. Midwest in the next five days, while most of the East and South will stay below normal through the middle of January.

Heating oil reached a 13-month record after forecast that temperatures through mid-January would be below normal. U.S. distillate supplies, including diesel fuel and heating oil, declined 2.06 million barrels (1.3 percent) to 159.3 million barrels last week. Refineries will need more crude oil to produce heating oil after its stockpiles have shrunk.

OPEC raised output this month to benefit from growing rising prices. The 11 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased supplies by 115,000 barrels per day to 26.615 million per day.

February delivery for crude increased $0.4 (0.5 percent) to $79.68 per barrel by 11:09 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude oil is the raw material used in producing heating oil, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel and other petrochemicals. Three greatest oil producers in the world are the United States, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Crude oil prices directly affect the cost of home heating oil, gasoline, electric power generation and manufacturing. Being the major energy source, oil attracts attention of many investors. Oil price was steadily rising through 2009. Will this trend remain in 2010?

Let’s look at different factor influencing oil prices. As crude oil used in production of unleaded gas and heating oil, prices of these commodities can influence price of the oil. A very cold winter results in higher demand for heating oil, pushing prices for crude oil up. A very active driving season during summer vacations can boost the demand and, as a result, prices for crude oil. Obviously, potential world crises in oil-producing countries may also significantly boost prices of the commodity.

Generally, outlook for oil prices is rather positive. Global economy recovers and rebounding economy requires energy sources, spurring demand for oil. OPEC is expected to decrease its oil production. Production output of non-OPEC countries, while rising, will not offset growing demand for the energy source. Declining dollar forces investors to invest in commodities, like oil, as a hedge measure. Easing credit markets makes it cheaper to store crude oil. All these factors promise bright future for a crude oil.

Telling all this, we should remember that not everybody agree on such optimistic outlook. Some analysts insist that rising supplies, partially because of new technologies giving access to new drilling sites, will catch up demand and will drive oil prices down. Also declining dollar can make prices, measured in U.S. currency, somewhat misleading. Analysts point out that, while dollar prices have surged this year, prices measured in non-U.S. currencies rose not that much and actual oil prices were similarly increased not very much.

So, what price for the black gold can be expected in 2010? There are different opinions on this matter. Technically, long term support level exists at $50 per barrel. Actually, even most pessimistic predictions are not putting oil price in 2010 below $60 level. Another major support and resistance level rests at $75. Most analysts think that the commodity will be traded at this level or somewhat higher in the next year. There are forecasts that put prices as high as $90 in 2010 and even $110 in 2011. But we should remember about another resistance level at $100 which is hard to overcome both from technical and psychological points of view. Take all this factors into account when deciding your trading strategy for the oil but remember to watch market carefully as, in the end, it says what is right and what is wrong.

Gold prices dropped as rising dollar lowered demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. Restoring U.S. economy returned confidence in the U.S. currency, driving the greenback up. Some investors also were selling the metal to make profit from high gold prices. February futures for gold delivery slid $9.80 (0.9 percent) to $1,098.10 per ounce on the Comex division of NYMEX.

Crude oil little changed, remaining at a five-week high, after heating oil jumped on forecast for cold weather in the U.S. and the dollar rebounded versus the euro. January delivery for heating oil increased $0.0293 (1.4 percent) to $2.1028 per barrel on NYMEX. U.S. oil stockpiles dropped 1.85 million barrels in the week ended December 25th from 327.5 million the previous week. February delivery for crude oil gained $0.1 to $78.87 per barrel on NYMEX.

Crude oil gained after the U.S. inventories unexpectedly fell because of declining imports. Stockpiles of crude oil dropped last week to 335.9 million barrels from 3.94 million. Another reason for oil advance is rising equities and a declining U.S. dollar boosting the demand for commodities as an inflation hedge.

President of Strategic Energy & Economic Research said that “inventories are down because nobody wants to have excess supply on hand. The drop is not due to a tightening market.” President of Prestige Economics LLC thinks that “this is completely an import story.”

Supplies could fall even more if it weren’t for the decline in refinery runs. Refineries operated at 80.6 percent of capacity, compared to 1.2 percentage points in the previous week, the lowest rate since the week ended April 10th.

December delivery for crude oil gained $0.71 (0.9 percent) to $80.31 per barrel by 11:49 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Speculation that the Bank of England is keeping the monetary policy unrestricted with the rates at the historical lows busted the prospects for higher inflation and thus helped the gold to climb up to 2-month high level today. Britain’s central bank increased its bond-purchasing program, which means that more pounds will be printed. It also left the key policy interest rate unchanged at 0.5 percent today. December gold futures peaked at $973.70, gaining $7.40 (0.8 percent) on NYMEX.

The unexpected strengthening of the U.S. dollar provoked a daily correction movement in the crude oil today. Disappointing quarterly reports by some of the large U.S. companies eliminated the market optimism pushing traders out of commodities into a safer dollar. Growing commercial crude oil inventories in the United States also press on the oil prices. Analysts say that currently there are more reasons to be bearish on oil than bullish. September futures for brent fell by $0.87 (1.2 percent) to $71.10/barrel as of 10:53 on NYMEX.