Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘deficit’

Analysts forecast that gold priced in euro will continue to hit new highs. When price will reach its previous peak a cup and handle pattern may occur as investors start selling, causing some decline in price. After that price tend to rise greatly. Gold rose to 836.98 euro per ounce, an all-time record, on March 2nd.

Copper scrap discount to New York-listed futures declined by half in two months on deficit of used metal. Demand for the copper is rebounding on speculation that economic recovery will increase consumption. In the same time, scrap copper becoming scarcer because of harsh winter in the U.S. as snow hampers collection of scarp. May delivery for copper shrunk 0.3 percent to $3.4245 per pound by 11:17 on NYMEX.

Coffee may rise 21 percent in two months on lack of high quality supplies. The output in Columbia, the second largest grower in the world, fell to the lowest in 33 years because of adverse weather. Analysts predict that global demand will be about 131 million bags, while world production will be around 124 million bags in 2010. May futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.0515 (3.8 percent) to $1.319 per pound today in New York.

Corn and soybean prices advance with rising gasoline price, boosting the attractiveness of fuels produced from grain and oilseeds. Gasoline prices reached the highest level in five weeks, increasing demand for corn-based ethanol and biodiesel made from soybeans. May futures for corn delivery gained $0.11 (3 percent) to $3.8275 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.145 (1.5 percent) to $9.69 per bushel.

White sugar gained in London on signs that a global production deficit may persist, encouraging importers to increase inventories. Production of sugar cane in Brazil and India, the largest growers in the world, was hampered by adverse weather. Analysts forecast that global demand will exceed worldwide output by 9.4 million metric tons in the 2009–10 season. May delivery for white sugar rose $7.60 (1.1 percent) to $714.50 per metric ton on the Liffe exchange.

Wheat, soybeans and corn dropped in Chicago after the dollar gained, making purchases of U.S. crops unprofitable for traders, who are using other currencies. May delivery for wheat lost 1.3 percent to $4.9325 per bushel on CBoT by 12:34. Argentina, the third biggest soybean exporter in the world, may produce more soybeans than previously predicted record 52 million tons with the aid of rains. May delivery for soybeans declined 0.7 percent to $9.575 per bushel. Corn planting is expected to increase from 86.5 million acres last year to 89 million this year. May delivery for corn fell 0.7 percent to $3.6625 per bushel.

Coffee slid New York as the stronger dollar curbed demand for commodities as an alternative investment. The greenback gained for the first time this week versus a basket of six major currencies. March futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.006 (0.5 percent) to $1.298 per pound by 9:51 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Coffee price may tumble to $1.20 if the dollar rally will continue, yet the coffee may rise with deficit of high quality coffee and in case of dollar decline. The coffee price increased previous year because adverse weather harmed harvests in Brazil and Colombia.

Sugar rose on speculation that farmers in India will not significantly increase planting of cane. A less-than-expected increase in planting area can lead to import of sugar by India, supporting prices. March futures for raw-sugar delivery rose 1.8 percent to $0.2707 per pound on ICE.

Sugar futures rose on speculation that the global deficit will be higher than forecasted. Analysts say that “sugar has favorable technicals and fundamentals”. March futures for raw-sugar delivery added $0.0012 (0.4 percent) to $0.294 per pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Wheat futures gained in Chicago on forecast that supplies may decline because farmers in the U.S. cut selling after prices dropped last month to the lowest level since June. Prices are also aided by expectation of rising demand for U.S. wheat. March futures for wheat delivery went up $0.125 (2.6 percent) to $4.8725 per bushel on CBoT.

Cotton prices rose, ending the longest decline since September 2008, on outlook for improving demand in China, the biggest buyer of the fiber in the world. The area planted with cotton may decrease by 4.9 percent and reductions in the crop supply may cause Chinese textile producers to increase imports. March futures for cotton delivery gained $0.0104 (1.5 percent) to $0.6926 per pound on ICE.

White sugar price reached to the highest level since 1989 in London as concern about supply deficit forces India and other importers to increase stockpiles. India, the biggest consumer in the world, are going to import at least 7 million tons of sugar this season, third of that number being white, or refined, sugar. Worldwide demand for sugar will exceed supply by 13.5 million metric tons in the 2009–10 season. March delivery for white sugar gained $11.20 (1.5 percent) to $743.90 per ton on the Liffe exchange.

Analysts predict that gold may decline as a stronger dollar eroded appeal of the precious metal as an inflation hedge. The U.S. currency rose 0.8 percent versus the euro today. If the greenback rally continues, gold is going to go down. Immediate delivery for gold was little changed, remaining at $1,133.50 per ounce by 11:12 in New York.

Sugar futures rose in New York, continuing a rally to the record price in 29 years, on concern that supplies will shrink as worldwide demand exceeds production. Sugar price more than doubled in the previous year as drought in India and excess rainfalls in Brazil have cut cane yield. Analysts say that “a deficit in the sugar market will help the commodity to outperform a lot of the softs”. March futures for raw-sugar delivery gained $0.004 (1.4 percent) to $0.2802 per pound as of 9:52 a.m. on ICE

Crude oil fluctuated after forecasts that temperature in the northern U.S. will rise next week. About four-fifths of the U.S. heating oil consuming depends on the weather in the northeastern U.S. U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuel, including diesel and heating oil, slid 1.78 million barrels last week. February delivery for crude oil dropped $0.04 to $81.47 per barrel by 10:49 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Sugar futures gained for the third time in four sessions as traders increased buying to profit from growing supply deficit. Speculators were interested mostly in remaining in the long positions. Unfavorable weather conditions cut crops in Brazil and India increasing a global deficit. March futures for raw-sugar delivery increased $0.0046 (1.7 percent) to $0.2723 per pound as of 9:57 on ICE.

Orange-juice prices dropped to the week low after report that citrus harvest won’t be damaged by a cold weather. Possibility for some frosts remains but citrus harvest will be mostly untouched by a harsh weather. Orange-juice previously rose as hedge funds and other speculators were buying on concern that frosts will harm the fruits. March futures for orange-juice delivery fell $0.0275 (2 percent) to $1.379 per pound by 12:06 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Sugar rallied in 2009 amid tight supplies, becoming the top performing commodity in the past six months. Adverse weather conditions damaged crops in Brazil and India, the two largest producers in the world, causing sugar prices to double this year. And how the commodity is going to perform in 2010?

Fundamentals can be considered bullish for the sweetener. Investment funds, limited production in India and a weak dollar are major supporting factors for sugar prices. The commodity also helped by demand for ethanol from Brazil’s flex fuel car fleet.

Global supplies of sugar will remain low for the first half of 2010. The world is using more sweetener than it is producing, causing a deficit for two consecutive years. The global sugar supply deficit is estimated as much as 13.5 million metric tons in the 2009–2010 season. There is some pending dryness in regions including India and Australia, curbing the commodity productions in these countries. On the other side, a favorable weather conditions are expected in Brazil’s Center-South, where increasing production may start to ease the current global deficit.

Beet growers in France and Germany, the two largest producers in the Europe, expect the greatest harvest since 2006. But EU regulations state that farmers may produce no more than 13.3 million metric tons of sugar for food for the domestic market, and surplus beet is considered out-of-quota and turned into export sugar or products such as ethanol. For the foreseeable future the European Commission is not going to authorize the export of out-of-quota sugar in excess of the fixed quantitative limit. Beet harvest of French growers is highest in 50 years, adding to this year’s EU oversupply of 550,000 tons. In case European growers will convince Commission to loose regulation the commodity deficit can be significantly reduce by European sugar.

Considering all factors, the outlook for sugar is rather optimistic. Most analysts agree that next target price for the commodity should be about $0.30. Yet some analysts argue that price as low as $0.13 more realistic. They point that such factors as possibility that mills will produce more sweetener than previously predicted and probability for unloading of funds positions in case if sugar prices will fall may put downward pressure on sugar. Even considering this factors its price is not likely to fall below $0.10. As always caution is advised when dealing with commodities.

Sugar went above the 3-year high level on ICE Futures in New York today. The shortfall of this commodity in India (which is the world leading consumer of sugar) and the elevated global level of deficit spur speculations among the traders that the sugar will continue rising in the world. Analysts believe that the global hedge funds will increase their positions in sugar on deficit expectations. October delivery sugar futures rose to $0.1847/pound on ICE as of 11:11 today — that’s 0.2 percent compared to the Friday’s close level.

The platinum is expected to grow back to $1,500 level per ounce during next two years, according to some commodity analysts. The gain in demand conjoined with the decline of the supply from the South African mines can lead to a slow recovery of this industrial and precious metal. Platinum immediate delivery contracts rose to $1,199.75 per ounce (or 1 percent) during today’s trading session at SICOM as of 11:30.