Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘dollar’

Copper is an industrial metal important for housing construction. It’s also used in construction of refrigerators, automobiles, cell phones and other goods. Copper was steadily rising in the past year, but it experienced sharp decline through January to the beginning of February. Then, in the second half of February to March, the metal rebounded. What do analysts say about copper’s perspective? In fact, opinions vary on this matter.

There are voices supporting optimistic outlook for copper price. They are speculating about global economic recovery, supporting demand for the industrial metal. Data from the U.S., one of major copper consumer, about expanding economy especially supports optimism for copper performance, as healthy economy and decreasing jobless rate lead to more housing construction and, as a result, more copper demand. Reports about dwindling stockpiles of LME-monitored copper also can result in price increase. LME-monitored inventories of copper dropped to almost 540,000 metric tones, lowest amount since early February.

But many analysts are inclined to pessimistic view on copper ability to rise or even maintain current price level, some even were going as far as calling current price level “a bubble”. They point out that key reason for the metal’s outstanding performance was huge amount of copper imported by China, one of the world’s greatest consumer, causing copper price to double in 2009. In 2010 it turned out that China imported more copper than it really requires. And it seems that suggestion about demand for the metal rebounding after New Year holidays in China did not prove true. There is also concern that economic recovery may be slow and supply may exceed demand. Earthquake in Chile caused price surge at first but, while being harmful for copper output, didn’t affected copper production as strong as was expected.

So, how can we predict copper moves amid such uncertainty? First answer lies in the very nature of copper as industrial metal. Copper is tied very strongly with overall economical picture, so the world economy can suggest possible copper moves. If economy will continue to rebound, then copper will continue to go up. Another factor worthy consideration is a dollar. Commodities, including copper, are very dependent on the U.S. currency these days, so look for the greenback performance for suggestion where commodities may be heading. It’s also looks like copper performance is strongly correlated with the stock market, so you can plan your trade if you can predict where the stock market is heading.

Soybeans gained after demand for the grain from makers of animal feed and vegetable oil in the U.S. increased in the past month. Processors consumed 148.35 million bushels of soybeans in February, which is 15 percent higher than in the previous year and highest level for the month ever. Dwindling U.S. stockpiles is a supportive factor for the grain price. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.0525 (0.6 percent) to $9.3075 per bushel as of 11:25 on CBoT.

Wheat fell on concern that a rising dollar will cut appeal of the U.S. supplies and as good weather conditions resulted in the favorable outlook for the winter crop in Kansas. The greenback rebounded 0.7 percent versus a basket of six major currencies. The government report showed that inventories may reach 27.2 million metric tons by May 31st, the highest level since 1988. May futures for wheat delivery slid $0.045 (0.9 percent) to $4.8075 per bushel by 11:45 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Sugar futures dropped for a second day in New York, reaching the lowest price in six months, on speculation that production in India will increase. Analysts say that production in India may reach as much as 16.8 million metric tons of sugar in the year through September. Sugar futures more than doubled in 2009 as bad weather conditions cut supplies from India and Brazil. May futures for raw-sugar delivery fell $0.0077 (3.6 percent) to $0.208 per pound by 9:22 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Wheat slid to a four-week low as the dollar gained, curbing appeal of commodities priced in the U.S. currency. The greenback rose 0.5 percent versus a basket of six major currencies today. U.S. wheat export may total 22.45 million metric tons in the year ending May 31st. May futures for wheat delivery dwindled $0.0425 (0.9 percent) to $4.9075 per bushel as of 9:58 on CBoT.

Wheat prices advanced as the dollar fell, spurring demand for the U.S. grain. The U. S. currency slipped as much as 0.4 percent versus a basket of major currencies. Global stockpiles may climb 19 percent to 195.9 million metric tons in the year ending May 31st, slowing the wheat price increase. The grain price may also fall as U.S. have to compete with other exporters. May futures for wheat delivery advanced $0.015 (0.3 percent) to $4.95 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Sugar futures dropped to the weekly low on speculation that world demand will decline. Analysts say that with increasing global inventories “the bulls will lose their opportunity for a strong rally”. May futures for raw-sugar delivery dropped $0.0062 (2.8 percent) to $0.2157 per pound on ICE.

Copper prices slid on concern that demand for the industrial metal will decline in China with stalled economic recovery. Earlier the metal fluctuated, following the dollar and the U.S. equities. May futures for copper delivery slid $0.007 (0.2 percent) to $3.4105 per pound on NYMEX.

Wheat gained as U.S. farmers are cutting sales on anticipation that a weaker dollar will increase demand for the grain. Price was falling as global wheat supplies are increasing faster than world demand but low wheat planting this winter may cause lack of supplies, leading to rebound in price. May futures for wheat delivery rose $0.1125 (2.2 percent) to $5.1575 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn advanced on speculation that excessive rainfall may harm crops in Argentina. Price is supported by combination of a falling dollar, adverse weather and improving world stock markets, as well as by farmers, who are holding crops for higher prices. May futures for corn delivery jumped $0.0525 (1.4 percent) to $3.8675 per bushel in Chicago.

Gold may rise to $1,162 per ounce, according to technical analysis, in case prices hold above $1,135 level. The precious metal advanced 3.6 percent this year. Gold traded at $1,136.45 by 10:44 in London.

Wheat slipped after dollar gained and Iraq shifted from U.S. grain to supplies from Canada and Russia. The greenback advanced 0.8 percent versus a basket of six major currencies today. Iraq bought 100,000 metric tons of wheat from Canada and 280,000 tons from Russia. May futures for wheat delivery dropped $0.0475 (0.9 percent) to $4.9975 per bushel as of 10:17 on CBoT.

Cocoa sank to the lowest in three months in London on outlook for increasing production in Ivory Coast. While output in Ivory Coast hasn’t returned to its highest level, production is higher then previously predicted. Analysts rose forecast for Ivory Coast cocoa supply for 2009–2010 period by as much as 44,000 metric tons up from January to 3.425 million tons. Cocoa for may delivery fell 1.3 percent to $2,824 per metric ton by 17:24 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Gold may slid after the dollar rebounded against the euro, cutting appeal of the metal as an alternative asset. The greenback rose on concern about Greece’s debts last month. Gold have tendency to move inversely to the U.S. currency.

Yet there are some factors that can support the metal’s price. Commodities’ prices may go up as U.S. economy advanced at a 5.9 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the greatest pace in six years. Chile earthquake boosted the base metals prices, possibly pushing other commodities up. Africa’s biggest gold mines may halt due strikes, decreasing supply of the precious metal.

April futures for gold delivery fell $1.20 (0.1 percent) to $1,117.70 per ounce by 11:28 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Immediate delivery for gold was at $1,117.30 in London.

Wheat gained on speculation that futures will advance, causing investors, who had bet on price decline, to buy back contracts and to close out positions. Speculative long positions in wheat futures were outnumbered by short positions by as much as 51,195 contracts in the week ended February 16th in Chicago. May futures for wheat delivery added $0.1025 (2 percent) to $5.14 per bushel by 10:16 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Crude oil gained on signals that fuel demand may rise in the U.S. as economy recovers. Price was also aided by the dollar’s decline against the euro. The number of tankers used as floating storage for crude oil and diesel dropped 20 percent in January. April delivery for crude oil went up $1.70 (2.2 percent) to $79.87 per barrel as of 10:41 on NYMEX.

Corn, soybeans and sugar fell today as a stronger dollar curbed demand for commodities as an alternative investment. The dollar rose as much as 0.3 percent versus a basket of six major currencies. May futures for corn delivery slid $0.03 (0.8 percent) to $3.8325 per bushel by 12:02 on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery declined $0.15 (1.6 percent) to $9.48 per bushel on CBoT. May futures for raw-sugar delivery fell $0.007 (2.9 percent) to $0.237 per pound on ICE.

Wheat prices may decline 14 percent with start of new harvests in the next few months. World wheat production was predicted to reach 677.4 million metric tons. Russia, the third biggest grower in the world, plans to rise grain export by 32 percent in the next five years, putting even more strain on wheat prices. Analysts forecast that wheat may fall to $150 per ton.

Sugar futures gained after Pakistan increased purchases. Other importers may follow Pakistan, increasing demand for the sweetener. May futures for raw-sugar delivery gained $0.0072 (3 percent) to $0.244 per pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York.

Wheat futures went up as the dollar’s decline boosted appeal of the U.S. commodities. The greenback fell 0.6 percent versus a basket of six major currencies today, supporting commodities. May futures for wheat delivery went up $0.08 (1.6 percent) to $5.1375 per bushel on CBoT.

Hog futures advanced as U.S. pork prices continued to rally, signaling that meat inventories are declining. Increasing U.S. exports may further lower pork supplies, spurring hogs price. April futures for hog settlement rose $0.009 (1.3 percent) to $0.7035 per pound on CME.