Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘export’

Oil gained today on the positive data from the United States even as the US inventories increased. The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index was little changed at 62.5 in December, while a decrease to 60.4 was predicted by specialists, and pending home sales grew 7.3 percent in November, compared to the median forecast of 1.7 percent. Iran responded to the possibility of sanctions from the USA by threatening to stop supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. US stockpiles of crude increased by 3.9 million barrels to 327.5 million barrels last week. February futures for crude oil delivery advanced $0.29 (0.3 percent) to $99.65 per barrel on NYMEX. February contract for Brent oil gained from $107.43 to $107.96 per barrel on ICE as of 21:08 GMT today.

Wheat declined today on prospect for falling demand for the crop in the United States as well as for US exports in other countries. Algeria turned away from the USA to other exporters, Argentina among them perhaps, for supplying wheat. Analysts say that surging prices for the agricultural commodity is the main reason for slower demand. Wheat dropped from $6.4875 to $6.4500 per bushel on CBoT.

Wheat was flat today after falling yesterday on forecasts of increasing supply.

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia predicted that output from Western Australia may double to 9.24 million metric tons, above the 9.12 million tons estimated last month. Rainy weather in Argentina may help accelerate planting. Oil World forecast that Argentine farmers will increase sowing 6.8 percent to 4.87 million hectares (12 million acres).

Growing production in the Southern Hemisphere added to increasing supply from Russia and Ukraine. As a result, demand for the US wheat shrank. US exports are expected to drop to 26.54 million tons in the 2011–12 season from 35.1 million tons a year ago, according to the Department of Agriculture.

Wheat spot price was near its opening level of $6.1625 per bushel as of 8:09 GMT on CBoT.

Commodities gained today as Greece rejected the planned referendum and the European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate. Crude oil and wheat were among the gainers.

The referendum, promised by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, threatened the stability of the Eurozone. Some of the European leaders even spoke about expelling Greece from the European Union. Now tensions receded, reinvigorating markets.

Economists expected the ECB to keep the interest rates unchanged today. Many market participants were concerned that the rates are too high for the strained economy of the EU. The central bank, lead by its new President Mario Draghi, surprised everyone by cutting the main minimum bid rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 percent.

Wheat was down yesterday as the record harvest boosted the global stockpiles. International Grains Council estimated that output will increase 5 percent to 684 million metric tons in the 12 months ending June 30, pushing inventories to the highest level in a decade. The supply expanded as major wheat exporters, such as Russia and Ukraine, resumed their shipments after the drought last year.

Wheat was up today from $6.2300 to $$6.3575 per bushel as of 22:27 GMT on CBoT, following yesterday’s decline from $6.2900 to $6.2225 per bushel. Spot price for Brent crude jumped today $109.11 to $110.83 per barrel today on ICE, rebounding from the daily low of $107.83 per barrel.

Corn posted the biggest advance in more than a week on the anticipation of returning demand for the US supplies. According to the report of the US Department of Agriculture, the US exports of corn totaled 1.763 million metric tons in the week ended October 13, the highest level since March. Total sales for delivery before August 31 were 5 percent above the sales in the same period of the previous year, being at the highest level in four years. Settlement for corn jumped from $6.38 to $6.50 per bushel by 23:38 GMT today on CBoT.

The forecasts of good weather drove soybeans down. Dry weather in Brazil and rains in Argentina should boost harvest. The problems of Europe and the resulting worries also weighted down the oilseed. Soybean prices retreated from $12.2525 to $12.2350 per bushel today on CBoT.

The European crisis also caused the drop of rubber to the lowest level in 14 months. The leaders of European nations will discuss the situation in Europe at the summit this weekend. Some economists argue that the bailout fund will be boosted. Yet others speculate that the politicians won’t be able to reach an agreement and such speculation weight the commodity down. January future fo delivery of rubber slumped as much as 4.4 percent to 25,445 yuan ($3,985) per ton in Shanghai.

US farmers may cut most of their breeding cows to reduce losses because of drought. Texas ranchers may sell or slaughter 500,000 beef cows as the dry weather made them to expensive to feed. The losses of the states’ farm may reach $5.2 billion as the past 11 months were the driest since 1985 in the region. December futures for delivery of cattle advanced 1.1 percent to $1.192 by 13:00 on CME.

India’s production of sugar may reach a highest level in four years. Analysts predict the output may total 25.83 million metric tons in the year starting October 1, compared with 24.2 million tons estimate for this year. The high production may prompt India to lift the limit on exports. The resulting boost of supplies on global markets can drive prices down. Sugar spot price fell 1.1 percent to $0.2760 from $0.2790.

Wheat futures fell today as weather forecast improved prospects for US crops, while increasing output from Russia and Eastern Europe may decrease demand for US exports.

Harvest in the US was threatened by drought. Recent rains in parts of the Midwest eased concerns about the current harvest and planting of winter wheat.

The government newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported today that Russia may harvest more than 90 million metric tons of wheat. Wheat profited from the ban of exports by Russia last year, but as the nation ended the ban the grain is under pressure.

December settlement for wheat slipped $0.0425 (0.5 percent) to $7.9075 per bushel as of 13:15 on CBoT.

Rice is expected to surge as the smallest increase of inventories in five years may create deficit on markets. Stockpiles increased only 1.1 percent this year, compared to 29 percent in the past four years. The estimates of the US Department of Agriculture predicts signal that supply, being 456.2 million metric tons, still exceeds demand (455.2 million tons). Yet market analysts predict that prices will jump 20 percent by the end of this year. So far, prices for rice advanced 15 percent from May.

Sugar fell today on the speculation that India will increase exports, causing supply to exceed demand. On the other hand, China and Indonesia are going to expand their purchases of the commodity, potentially supporting prices. October contract for delivery of raw sugar slipped $0.0022 (0.8 percent) to $0.2762 per pound as of 12:24 on ICE.

July sugar exports from Brazil (the world’s biggest sugarcane producers) climbed to the maximum in eight previous months, pushing the market prices for this commodity down to 2-week minimum.

From the technical analysis point of view, the decline is finely justified as a correction that followed a sharp rally in July. That rally was induced by the rumors that Brazilian production will decline.

The market analysts point out the fact that the buyers are currently afraid of the tons of supply that may get into the market anytime. If that happens, supply may overwhelm any demand, sending the prices down the hill.

September sugar futures fell from $29.02 to $28.27 per 100 pounds or more than 2.5 percent as of 17:17 GMT on ICE today. It’s the lowest level since July 18.

Crude oil headed to the fourth weekly gain on hopes that the US and Europe would be able to resolve their debt problems. The European leaders announced after the summit €159 billion to help Greece and accepted a temporary default for the nation to prevent the crisis from spreading. September futures for delivery crude oil gained $0.48 to $99.61 per barrel in electronic trading on NYMEX before trading at $99.43.

Copper fell to the lowest level in four weeks after the report showed that manufacturing in China, the biggest user of the metal in the world, slowed. China’s Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Manufacturing Output Index were at the lowest level in 28 months, according to HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index Press Release. September futures for delivery of copper slid $0.0525 (1.2 percent) to $4.3835 as of 13:09 on COMEX, the biggest decline since June 23.

Wheat dropped as demand for the US exports declines, while exports from Russia grow. The US Department of Agriculture reported that US export sales declined 22 percent to 403,528 metric tons, the lowest since the end of May, in the week ended July 14 from a week ago. Russian agriculture minister claimed that the country may ship to foreign buyers as much as 18 million tons in the year that started July 1. September futures for delivery of wheat contracted $0.1975 (2.8 percent) to $6.7725 per bushel by 13:15 on CBoT, the biggest drop since June 30.

Wheat fell today on the speculation that importers would turn from US and European supplies to exports from Russia. First Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said yesterday that Russia’s output may total 90 million metric tons this year, while exports would reach 1.5 million tons in July. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin predicted last month that production would total 85 million tons. September futures for delivery wheat dropped $0.0575 (0.8 percent) to $7.0125 per bushel at 13:15 on CBoT.

Gold capped the longest rally since November 2009 today on concerns about the debt problems in the US and Europe. Standard & Poor’s warned that it may cut the US credit rating. Eight banks failed the stress test of the European Union banks. August futures for gold delivery gained $0.8 to $1,590.10 as of 13:37 on COMEX, reaching a new all-time record.