Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘harvest’

Raw-sugar futures gained today on concerns that drought may threaten harvest in Brazil, the largest producer. Harvest of sugar-cane in Brazil’s Center South, the biggest growing region in the world, may be lower than estimated 570 million metric tons if dry weather persists. October delivery for raw sugar rose $0.0063 (3.2 percent) to $0.2038 per pound as of 10:48 on ICE.

While in some countries wheat harvest is also threatened by drought, in Europe wheat faces other danger: excessive rains. Wheat prices jumped on speculation that Germany and some other countries of the Western European Union would have too much rain and also after Egypt bought 225,000 metric tons of wheat from the US. December futures for wheat delivery gained $0.23 (3.4 percent) to $7.0875 per bushel by 13:15 on CBoT.

Crude oil prices jumped today after manufacturing in the US and China expanded in August faster than expected. ISM PMI in the US rose from 55.5 to 56.3 in August. October settlement for crude oil (Brent) went up $1.71 (2.3 percent) to $76.35 per barrel on ICE.

Soybeans gained today on speculation that US inventories will decline with increasing China’s imports. China bought 284,000 metric tons of US soybeans for delivery after September 1st, while Chinese processors may have purchased more than 1.2 million tons of soybeans from the US in the previous week. November futures for soybean delivery went up $0.0525 (0.5 percent) to $10.39 per bushel as of 10:12 on CBoT.

Cocoa slipped to the lowest level in three months in London on outlook for better harvest in Ivory Coast, the biggest grower in the world. The harvest starting next month may rise 11 percent to 1 million metric tons from 900,000 tons in the previous year. December delivery for cocoa gained $4 (0.1 percent) to $3,039 per ton by 12:03 on ICE.

Raw-sugar futures erased gains, sliding to the two-week low, on speculation that growing supplies from Brazil will curb the global deficit. Production in Brazil’s Center South, the largest producing region in the world, advanced 26 percent in the first half of July. October delivery for raw sugar fell 0.5 cent (2.7 percent) to $0.1774 per pound as of 13:10 on ICE.

Hogs futures slipped today on forecast that high US pork prices may diminish retail demand. Meatpackers shipped 9.215 million pounds of pork last week, the worst week since late June. October futures for hog settlement slid $0.003 (0.4 percent) to $0.793 per pound at 9:42 on CME.

Raw sugar experienced a strongest decrease in almost two moths on speculation that supplies from Brazil and India, the world’s largest producers, would increase, erasing the global deficit. Production in Brazil’s Center South increased by 26 percent in the first half of July, while cane planting in India was boosted by rains, which were 2.5 percent above the 50-year average in July. October delivery for raw sugar slumped $0.0079 (4.1 percent) to $0.1861 per pound by 9:45 on ICE.

Coffee futures dropped the most in two weeks on speculation that the commodity rallied too much, considering the anticipated high supplies from Brazil, the biggest producer. Global coffee production may grow 12 percent to 135 million bags in the year starting October 1st. September delivery for Arabica coffee slid $0.0475 (2.8 percent) to $1.6775 per pound as of 10:04 on ICE.

Corn and wheat advanced today on concern that drought in Russia may curb supplies and prompt traders to turn to U.S. crops. The harvest expected to be below 80 million metric tons and some analysts reduce their forecasts even below 70 million tons, while previously forecasts promised the harvest to be above 85 million tons or even above 90 million. Low supplies may cause Russian government to restrict exports of crops.

Chad Henderson, a market analyst for Prime Consultants Inc. said:

The Russian crop problems are not just about wheat. The trend has shifted from rising inventories to declining supplies.

With decreasing supplies from Russia, traders may shift their attention to U.S. crops. U.S. the largest exporter of corn and wheat, while corn is the biggest U.S. crop.

December futures for corn delivery gained $0.0225 (0.6 percent) to $3.8025 per bushel on CBoT, after touching yesterday the lowest level since July 1. September futures for wheat delivery went up $0.0525 (0.9 percent) to $5.9475 per bushel as of 10:19.

Sugar prices tend to be unpredictable, as they demonstrated at the first half of this year, slumping dramatically instead of rising, as traders expected. Recently the prices showed signs of some recovery, though. So, where do we stand now, what can we expect? In fact, sugar prices again show unpredictability as analysts provide completely different opinions on this matter. Such turn of event isn’t surprising, as the prices very dependent on weather, which itself quite hard to predict.

On the positive side, we had dry weather in June, import levy in India and outlook for stable demand. Drought might damage crops in Thailand, reducing yield by 10–15 percent. Some experts say that adverse weather may harm next-year harvest in Brazil too. Even in case of big harvest, Brazil may experience problems with delivering it to foreign importers, as it’s currently unable to load sugar on all ships waiting in ports. India may impose 40 percent tax on imports, supporting the price. India may actually keep its supplies from global markets to meet the local demand.

On the negative side, outlook for growing supplies makes it unlikely for sugar price to rise significantly. Indian tax, while supportive for the price, unlikely to boost it higher than current level. India expected to produce about 26 million metric tons of the sweetener, from which around 500,000 tons might be exported. Forecast for Brazilian harvest for the most part shifted from promising lower supplies to predicting higher output. Brazil’s output may climb 14 percent to as high as 41 million tons. Economists say that global deficit would shift to surplus of about 5 million tons in the next season.

All in all, there is no reason to expect major upswing of sugar prices. The prices expected to remain for the most part in the $0.15-$0.18 range. Price of $0.13 can be considered a good buying opportunity.

Cattle and hogs futures gained today on outlook that demand for U.S. exports would rise as stocks gained and the dollar fell. The dollar tumbled today as much as 0.8 percent versus the basket of six major currencies, increasing attractiveness of U.S. exports. August futures for cattle delivery gained $0.01275 (1.4 percent) to $0.9075 per pound by 9:14 on CME. August futures for hog settlement went up $0.00525 (0.7 percent) to $0.80575 per pound.

Copper prices rose today as declining stockpiles suggested that demand would remain strong despite the slowdown of the global economic recovery. LME-monitored inventories declined 12 percent this year and fell to the lowest level in seven months today. September futures for copper delivery rose $0.092 (3.2 percent) to $3.9925 per pound by 11:33 a.m. on COMEX.

Corn prices dropped today on prediction that rainfalls would increase soil moisture and boost harvest in the U.S., the largest exporter in the world. Analysts say that prices are high enough, despite fewer than planned acres were sowed last month because of unfavorable weather. December futures for corn delivery slid $0.0275 (0.7 percent) to $3.8175 per bushel as of 12:54 on CBoT.

Wheat gained today amid speculations that demand might increase with shortage of corn. U.S. farmers sowed less acreage with corn than was predicted. Corn is competing grain used to feed livestock, therefore shortage of corn boosts wheat. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.075 (1.6 percent) to $4.8775 per bushel as of 10:01 on CBoT.

Orange-juice futures rose to the highest level in 15 weeks as hurricanes threaten to damage citrus harvest this season in Florida. According to government’s forecasts, orange crop in Florida would drop to 133.6 million boxes in the harvest ending in July from 162.5 million boxes in the previous season. Speculator increased their net-long positions as of June 22nd by 26 percent from the previous week. September delivery for orange juice added $0.0015 (0.1 percent) to $1.485 per pound by 12:07 on ICE.

Copper dropped today on concerns that economic growth in China may slow. With Europe’s troubles and signs of slowdown of the U.S. economic growth, China remained the main source of optimism on markets. And even it might go away. September futures for copper delivery slid $0.159 (5.1 percent) to $2.9305 per pound on COMEX.

Concern for China’s economic growth also hit sugar futures, which also fell on a notion that the prices rallied too much. The supply picture is mixed, as harvest in India expected to beat estimation, but adverse weather in Thailand can curb output. October delivery for raw sugar dropped $0.0054 (3.4 percent) to $0.1528 per pound on ICE.

Wheat futures slid today as harvest in the U.S. accelerated due to favorable weather. The prices also fell as speculative investors increased their short positions. September futures for wheat delivery went down $0.0625 (1.3 percent) to $4.5875 per bushel by 9:57 on CBoT.

Wheat futures dropped today as favorable weather may help U.S. farmers to accelerate harvest. Demand for U.S. wheat also fell because importers turned to supplies from the Black Seas region. September futures for wheat delivery slid $0.06 (1.3 percent) to $4.65 a bushel on CBoT.

Soybeans gained today, erasing the previous losses, on speculation that excessive precipitation in the U.S. would reduce the area, in which the crop would be planted. Soybean planting probably may drop from the forecast 78.1 million to 76.5 million acres. November futures for soybean delivery slipped $0.06 (0.7 percent) to $9.18 per bushel as of 1:12 p.m. the Chicago Board of Trade.

Hog futures slid today on speculation that increasing profits would encourage U.S. farmers to reduce cuts of hog herd. According to analysts, producers aren’t expanding for now, yet they may be planning to do that in future. August futures for hog settlement subtracted $0.0175 (2.1 percent) to $0.82175 per pound on CME.

Sugar prices went up today in New York for the first time in three days on prediction that harvest may be hurt by low precipitation in India, sugar’s biggest consumer. In the week that ended June 23 India’s monsoon, the main source of nation’s irrigation, was 21 percent below average. October delivery for raw sugar rose $0.0038 (2.4 percent) to $0.1619 per pound on ICE.

Wheat futures rose today for the first time in a week also on outlook for adverse weather. As much as 12.5 million acres of grain were prevented from being planted in Canada because of rainfall. The output from the U.S. and Russia may also be lower because of adverse weather. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.0175 (0.4 percent) to $4.775 per bushel on CBoT.

Copper prices gained today as government reports signaled that demand may be higher then economic indicators previously suggested. Cores durable goods orders rose by 0.9 percent in May and unemployment claims dropped from 476,000 to 457,000 last week, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery strengthens. On the negative side we have unexpected plunge of new home sales from 446,000 to 300,000, which may curb gains of the metal prices. September futures for copper delivery added $0.0695 (2.4 percent) to $3.024 per pound on COMEX.