London-traded Brent grade of oil performed vastly different from its New York-traded counterpart. That’s an unusual behavior as most of the time all types of oil are influenced by same fundamentals. Rising demand for Brent can be explained by forecast of below-normal temperatures in Europe. Additionally, a militant group in Nigeria damaged pipeline that belongs to Italian company, resulting in a loss of 4,000 barrels per day of production.

Futures for delivery of crude oil in March dropped $0.93 to $96.91 per barrel on NYMEX. At the same time, Brent oil rose from $115.00 to $116.52 per barrel, the highest settlement since September 8, as of 20:43 GMT today on ICE.
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US nonfarm payrolls rose by 243,000 jobs in January. That’s compared to the average forecast of 150,000 and the December growth by 203,000. The unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent, making a pleasant surprise for market participants, who expected it to stay at 8.5 percent.

Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, spoke about the positive impact of the news, but also mentioned a negative side of the employment growth regarding commodity prices:

The jobs data shows the economy is gaining momentum. This is bullish for risk appetite and therefore for commodity prices. However, it may limit the scope for a third round of quantitative easing, and this may limit gains.

March futures for delivery of crude oil gained $1.11 to $97.47 per barrel before trading at $96.89 by 13:42 on NYMEX. Spot price for Brent crude went up from $112.50 to $113.34 per barrel as of 17:41 GMT today on ICE. Gold dropped from $1,758.70 to $1,736.70 on COMEX today.
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Earlier, the agricultural commodity reached the highest price since November as European NYSE-monitored stockpiles fell 1.8 percent since January 9. Additionally, concerns that dry weather in Ivory Coast will hurt output were boosting prices.

Cocoa closed at $2,361 per metric ton on ICE, falling from the opening of $2,452. Intraday, the price reached $2,480 — the highest level since November 14.
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Wheat was also higher on dwindling Russian stocks. Inventories of some Russian regions declined by more than 50 percent, while other regions shipped almost all of their supplies as exports picked up. Wheat climbed from $6.4075 to $6.4650 per bushel on CBoT today.
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Discussion among Greece and private bondholders about a debt haircut ended in a stalemate. The country offered very low interest rates on its bonds that creditors didn’t wish to accept. The bad outcome of the talks spoiled market sentiment that previously was lifted by speculation that European lawmakers devised plans for battling the debt crisis.

Iran still may disrupt supply of crude, but analysts think that such move is already priced in. Analysts estimated that US inventories of crude oil grew 0.9 million barrels last after falling 3.4 million barrels in the week before. A report from the Energy Information Administration about stockpiles will be released later today.

March futures for delivery of crude oil rose $0.24 to $99.19 per barrel in electronic trading on NYMEX after falling $0.63 to $98.95 yesterday. Brent rose from $110.24 to $110.52 per barrel as of 4:11 GMT today on ICE, following the drop from $110.84 to $110.33 yesterday.
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The International Coffee Organization increased its forecast for the world coffee production by 3.8 million bags from December to 132.4 million bags in the season that started in October. Analysts say that short sellers drive the market now, while buyers perhaps expect prices to fall further.

Greece is talking with private creditors in an attempt to convince them to write off part of the country’s debt. Initially, the talks improved mood of traders, boosting commodities, but the optimism started to wear off as market participants began to doubt success of the discussions.

Coffee price went down from $2.2390 to $2.2000 per pound yesterday on ICE after reaching earlier $2.1785 — the lowest level since January 9.
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Orange-juice futures also reached a record today. Citrus crops in Texas were hit by greening disease that has already caused an extensive damage to plants in Florida. At the same time, the US Food and Drug Administration halted juice imports from Brazil to check for banned fungicide. Futures for delivery of orange juice in March rose by the exchange limit of $0.1 (5 percent) to the record of $2.1065 per pound as of 11:00 on ICE.
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US commercial crude oil inventories declined 3.4 million barrels last week. An increase by 2.9 million was predicted by specialists. Currently the stockpiles stand at 331.2 million barrels.

Mohammad Khazaee, Ambassador of Iran to the United Nations, explained:

There is no decision to block and close the Strait of Hormuz unless Iran is threatened seriously and somebody wants to tighten the noose. All the options are, or would be, on the table.

February futures for delivery of crude oil rallied by $1.42 to $102.01 per barrel in electronic trading on NYMEX before trading at $101.74 as of 13:03. Brent went from $111.53 to $112.01 per barrel today as of 5:24 GMT on ICE.
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China’s gross domestic product increased 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, following the 9.1 percent expansion in the third quarter. That was the slowest growth in 10 quarters. The report fueled talks that the country will perform measures to stimulate economic growth.

ZEW Economic Sentiment for Germany increased from -53.8 to -56.1 (month-on-month) in January, the highest level since July 2011. Economic expectations for the eurozone improved to -32.5 this month from -54.1 in the month before.

Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings of several European countries on January 13. Markets were downbeat somewhat after the action, but quickly recovered as such move was expected and generally priced in.

February futures for delivery of crude oil advanced $2.01 (2 percent) to $100.71 per barrel on NYMEX. Brent oil rose from $111.42 to $111.57 per barrel as of 23:54 GMT today on ICE. Corn price was higher from $6.0125 to $6.0600 per bushel on CBoT today, while soybeans rallied from $11.6300 to $11.8275 per bushel.
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Cattle advanced as demand for beef rose, while supply decreased. Beef price increased 5 percent in the United States this year, following the 10 percent increase in 2011. Beef exports jumped 25 percent in the 10 months ended October 31 from a year ago, while cattle herds were record small last year. April futures for cattle delivery rose 0.9 percent to $1.264 per pound at 13:00 on CME.
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Crude oil fell today after a report showed that German industrial production declined. Germany’s output dropped 0.6 percent in November, following the 0.8 advance in October. Oil also slid on easing concerns that Iran would disrupt oil supplies from the Persian Gulf. February contract for delivery of crude oil slipped $0.25 to $101.31 per barrel on NYMEX, the lowest price this year. Brent oil declined from $113.42 to $112.33 on ICE.
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US stockpiles of crude rose by 2.2 million barrels to 329.7 million barrels last week. Forecasters predicted a drop by 1.4 million. The increase followed growth by 3.9 million in a week before.

Europe’s borrowing costs surged and concerns grew about European indebted economies, especially Greece. That’s bad for oil as the European Union consume 16 percent of global supply. The dollar advanced on the fears, adding further pressure on commodities priced in the US currency.

February futures for delivery of crude oil retreated $1.41 (1.4 percent) to $101.81 per barrel on NYMEX. Prices were up 28 percent in the last quarter. Brent went down from $113.65 to $112.44 per barrel as of 21:12 GMT on ICE today. Earlier, prices touched $114.64, the highest settlement since November 14.
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