Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘supply and demand’

Crude oil fell today as reports showed that US oil and motor gasoline inventories declined less then expected, while US stockpiles of petroleum and distillate fuel increased. US crude oil inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week to 354.2 million barrels, while a decrease by 1.1 million was expected. Gasoline inventories fell 39,000 barrels to 223.3 million, compared to a predicted drop by 375,000. Stockpiles of distillate fuel went up 1.07 million barrels to 174.2 million and petroleum inventories increased by 5.3 million barrels last week.

Analysts say that demand remained strong and even grows, it’s just that growth of supplies outpaced demand. Total US fuel consumption grew 0.4 percent to 19.6 million barrels per day in the last month, while gasoline demand rose 6,000 barrels per day at the same time to 9.45 million, the highest level since August 2008. Reports showed a mixed picture, where balance of supply and demand may easily shift, so oil prices may move in any direction in the future. Prices advance can be limited, though, by concerns for the global economic recovery.

September delivery for crude oil slipped $0.35 (0.5 percent) to $75.42 per barrel on NYMEX. Futures reached $73.83, the lowest price since July 7. Oil prices are still 9 percent higher than at the same period in the previous year.

Hogs futures slipped today on forecast that high US pork prices may diminish retail demand. Meatpackers shipped 9.215 million pounds of pork last week, the worst week since late June. October futures for hog settlement slid $0.003 (0.4 percent) to $0.793 per pound at 9:42 on CME.

Raw sugar experienced a strongest decrease in almost two moths on speculation that supplies from Brazil and India, the world’s largest producers, would increase, erasing the global deficit. Production in Brazil’s Center South increased by 26 percent in the first half of July, while cane planting in India was boosted by rains, which were 2.5 percent above the 50-year average in July. October delivery for raw sugar slumped $0.0079 (4.1 percent) to $0.1861 per pound by 9:45 on ICE.

Coffee futures dropped the most in two weeks on speculation that the commodity rallied too much, considering the anticipated high supplies from Brazil, the biggest producer. Global coffee production may grow 12 percent to 135 million bags in the year starting October 1st. September delivery for Arabica coffee slid $0.0475 (2.8 percent) to $1.6775 per pound as of 10:04 on ICE.

Wheat reached 13-month high levels today as the weather troubles continue to remain a major concern of the main commodity suppliers across the world. It also looks unlikely that China or India will sell from their wheat stockpiles to satisfy the global demand.

Floods in Canada and droughts in Australia, France, Kazakhstan and Russia threaten the grain production in those regions. According to the market researchers, the wheat production in Western Australia is to fall by 9.5 million ton this year. Russian exports may be decreased by the government limits this year as the crops are falling there.

Despite the fact that the world consumers will have to buy more grain from the southern hemisphere this year, such big holders of the wheat stockpiles as China and India will probably refrain from parting with them. Analysts believe that the prices will stop rising so fast only if some other exporters will cover the supply deficit. Technical analysis factors support the bullish point of view.

Wheat went up from $586.25 to $599.50 as of 16:33 GMT on CBoT today, a spike to $609.75 was recorded earlier.

Cocoa futures gained today after the report about increased demand in North America. The cocoa grind increased by 12 percent in the second quarter to 117,657 metric tons compared to the previous year. Analysts say that grinding numbers show strong demand and support prices. September delivery for cocoa rose $21 (0.7 percent) to $3,165 per ton on ICE.

Hogs futures went up today as hot weather in the U.S. causes decrease of animals’ weight, causing concern about declining pork supply. The animals tend to eat less with such jot weather, decreasing their weight. Hogs purchased yesterday by pork processors weighed 2 kilograms (4.44 pounds) compared to the same day in the previous month. October futures for hog settlement gained $0.00375 (0.5 percent) to $0.757 per pound on the CME.

Sugar prices tend to be unpredictable, as they demonstrated at the first half of this year, slumping dramatically instead of rising, as traders expected. Recently the prices showed signs of some recovery, though. So, where do we stand now, what can we expect? In fact, sugar prices again show unpredictability as analysts provide completely different opinions on this matter. Such turn of event isn’t surprising, as the prices very dependent on weather, which itself quite hard to predict.

On the positive side, we had dry weather in June, import levy in India and outlook for stable demand. Drought might damage crops in Thailand, reducing yield by 10–15 percent. Some experts say that adverse weather may harm next-year harvest in Brazil too. Even in case of big harvest, Brazil may experience problems with delivering it to foreign importers, as it’s currently unable to load sugar on all ships waiting in ports. India may impose 40 percent tax on imports, supporting the price. India may actually keep its supplies from global markets to meet the local demand.

On the negative side, outlook for growing supplies makes it unlikely for sugar price to rise significantly. Indian tax, while supportive for the price, unlikely to boost it higher than current level. India expected to produce about 26 million metric tons of the sweetener, from which around 500,000 tons might be exported. Forecast for Brazilian harvest for the most part shifted from promising lower supplies to predicting higher output. Brazil’s output may climb 14 percent to as high as 41 million tons. Economists say that global deficit would shift to surplus of about 5 million tons in the next season.

All in all, there is no reason to expect major upswing of sugar prices. The prices expected to remain for the most part in the $0.15-$0.18 range. Price of $0.13 can be considered a good buying opportunity.

Corn and soybeans price gained on speculation that dry weather may harm crops in the U.S., the largest grower and exporter in the word. As much as 20 percent of the Midwest crops threatened by heat wave over the next six weeks as temperatures may reach 38 degrees Celsius (100 degrees Fahrenheit). These speculations spurred buying, which is driven primarily not but demand itself, but rather by concern for lower supplies. December futures for corn delivery gained $0.07 (1.8 percent) to $3.94 per bushel as of 10:35 on CBoT. November futures for soybean delivery rose $0.0825 (0.9 percent) to $9.6275 a bushel

Gold slid in New York after prices rose to the highest level in three weeks. The precious metal encountered resistance at the $1,215 level. The analysts say that price below $1,200 is good opportunity to buy. August futures for gold delivery slipped $5.60 to $1,207.90 per ounce by 12:32 on COMEX.

Cattle futures gained on signs of increasing demand for U.S. beef. Wholesale beef, shipped by meatpackers in the week that ended yesterday, climbed as much as 44 percent to 43 million pounds, compared to 29 million pounds in the week earlier. October futures for cattle delivery rose $0.00875 (1 percent) to $0.92275 per pound on CME.

Cotton futures rebounded as the weaker dollar boosted demand for some commodities as an inflation hedge. The U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level in two months versus the basket of six currencies. December delivery for cotton gained $0.0086 (1.2 percent) to $0.7465 per pound on ICE Futures U.S.

Copper and aluminum prices rose after aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. reported that its earnings were higher than expected. Alcoa Inc. forecast that global aluminum demand would grow 12 percent in 2010. September futures for copper delivery added $0.0085 (0.3 percent) to $3.0175 per pound on COMEX. Aluminum rose 1.2 percent to $1,995 per metric ton on LME.

Soybeans gained for the third straight session, erasing the previous losses, after the report showed that U.S. exports rosed in the previous week. In the week ended July 8 the U.S. Department of Agriculture inspected 6.515 million bushels intended for export, more than double compared to the week before. U.S. stockpiles estimated to total 175 million bushels on August 31st, 5.4 percent less than forecast in June. November futures for soybean delivery added $0.0275 (0.3 percent) to $9.56 per bushel as of 12:05 on CBoT.

Wheat gained, erasing the previous declines, on forecast that drought in Russia would curb global supply. Dry weather in Russia, the fourth largest grower in the world, harmed more than half the grain planted in 11 regions. The drought, which is to be worst in a decade, may persist for the rest of July. September futures for wheat delivery gained $0.0075 (0.1 percent) to $5.3875 per bushel by 12:13 on CBoT.

Arabica coffee climbed to the weekly high level today amid speculations that supplies would decline. Inventories tracked by ICE sank 29 percent this year to the lowest level since August 2002 as of July 7th. Global exports will be below last year’s forecast of 95.5 million bags (1 bag equals 60 kilograms or 132 pounds). September delivery for Arabica coffee gained $0.024 (1.5 percent) to $1.645 per pound at 10:01 on ICE.

Cattle futures dropped today on expectation that outdoor grilling in the U.S. would decline because of jot weather, diminishing demand for beef. Prices also may slump as investors liquidate positions after the three-day rally. Prices were rising throughout this year partly because of growing demand for beef. August futures for cattle delivery dropped $0.004 (0.4 percent) to $0.905 per pound as of 10:47 on CME.

Sugar futures were shifting from losses and gains, after jumping to the highest level in nine weeks in New York on speculation that demand would remain at the present level. Complicated credit situation and high prices depleted sugar inventories last year, prompting consumers to restock their supplies and supporting demand. October delivery for raw sugar slid $0.0001 (0.1 percent) to $0.1618 per pound on ICE Futures U.S. October futures for white-sugar delivery added $10.60 (2.3 percent) to $478.70 per metric ton on the Liffe exchange.

Hog and cattle futures gained on prospect for resuming imports of U.S. chicken to Russia would cause the U.S. meat supplies to dwindle. Russia, previously the biggest consumer of U.S. chicken, has agreed to lift a five-month-old ban on the meat after yesterday’s meeting of U.S. and Russian presidents. August futures for hog settlement advanced $0.00225 (0.3 percent) to $0.83475 per pound by 10:57 on CME. August futures for cattle delivery rose $0.0025 (0.3 percent) to $0.894 per pound.

Cotton prices rose on outlook for increasing demand from mills in the U.S., the biggest exporter of the fiber. U.S. mills used the fiber at an adjusted annual rate of 3.582 million bales in May, compared to the April rate of 3.48 million and up 7.6 percent compared to the previous year. December delivery for cotton gained $0.0028 (0.4 percent) to $0.79 per pound at 10:10 a.m. on ICE.