Commodity Blog

Posts Tagged ‘supply and demand’

Sugar futures dropped to a lowest in seven months in New York as production rose in Brazil and India, the largest producers in the world. India’s production will reach 16.8 million metric tons in the year ending September 30th, while output in Brazil more than doubled in the second half of February from a year earlier. Traders are holding their purchases in hopes for further price decline. May futures for sugar delivery fell $0.0063 (3.1 percent) to $0.1969 per pound on ICE Futures U.S.

Soybeans advanced to a highest in a week as China bought supplies from the U.S. exporters and after the report that stockpiles will be smaller than predicted. China bought 110,000 metric tons for delivery in the year beginning September 1st, signaling that appeal of the U.S. supplies persist despite the record harvest in South America. Inventories will be 190 million bushels on August 31st, down from 210 million forecasted in February. May futures for soybean delivery gained $0.105 (1.1 percent) to $9.58 per bushel on CBoT.

Wheat futures slid to a monthly low on speculation that inventories in the U.S., the greatest exporter in the world, will increase. Stockpiles will reach as much as 1.001 billion bushels on May 31st, up from a February forecast of 981 million bushels, while consumption for food, livestock feed and exports will be 1 percent less than predicted in the previous month. May futures for wheat delivery declined $0.08 (1.6 percent) to $4.815 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Wheat prices advanced as the dollar fell, spurring demand for the U.S. grain. The U. S. currency slipped as much as 0.4 percent versus a basket of major currencies. Global stockpiles may climb 19 percent to 195.9 million metric tons in the year ending May 31st, slowing the wheat price increase. The grain price may also fall as U.S. have to compete with other exporters. May futures for wheat delivery advanced $0.015 (0.3 percent) to $4.95 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Sugar futures dropped to the weekly low on speculation that world demand will decline. Analysts say that with increasing global inventories “the bulls will lose their opportunity for a strong rally”. May futures for raw-sugar delivery dropped $0.0062 (2.8 percent) to $0.2157 per pound on ICE.

Copper prices slid on concern that demand for the industrial metal will decline in China with stalled economic recovery. Earlier the metal fluctuated, following the dollar and the U.S. equities. May futures for copper delivery slid $0.007 (0.2 percent) to $3.4105 per pound on NYMEX.

Aluminum producers lowered the fee for Japanese buyers after China resumed halted capacity and supply in Asia rose as smelters began production. Premiums for the three months ending June 30 fell to $122 per metric ton down from $125 to $130 this quarter (the highest level in 14 years). The premium for Good Western-grade aluminum ingot more than doubled in 2009 as record purchases by China and decreased supplies from Russia caused shortage of the metal in Asia.

China, the largest buyer of copper in the world, decreased import after record purchases in 2009 as local smelters restarted production. Aluminum smelters in China, the largest producer of the industrial metal, resumed 5 million tons per annum of idled capacity in past year as profit margins improved with increasing prices. China’s purchases of refined aluminum dropped to 40,059 metric tons in January from 42,106 tons in December as the nation have ample inventories after it have bought more metal than necessary on outlook for a demand recovery.

Delivery for aluminum in three months rose 0.3 percent to $2,225 per ton by 15:57 on the London Metal Exchange. The price has reached previously a 15-month high.

Analysts forecast that gold priced in euro will continue to hit new highs. When price will reach its previous peak a cup and handle pattern may occur as investors start selling, causing some decline in price. After that price tend to rise greatly. Gold rose to 836.98 euro per ounce, an all-time record, on March 2nd.

Copper scrap discount to New York-listed futures declined by half in two months on deficit of used metal. Demand for the copper is rebounding on speculation that economic recovery will increase consumption. In the same time, scrap copper becoming scarcer because of harsh winter in the U.S. as snow hampers collection of scarp. May delivery for copper shrunk 0.3 percent to $3.4245 per pound by 11:17 on NYMEX.

Wheat gained as U.S. farmers are cutting sales on anticipation that a weaker dollar will increase demand for the grain. Price was falling as global wheat supplies are increasing faster than world demand but low wheat planting this winter may cause lack of supplies, leading to rebound in price. May futures for wheat delivery rose $0.1125 (2.2 percent) to $5.1575 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Corn advanced on speculation that excessive rainfall may harm crops in Argentina. Price is supported by combination of a falling dollar, adverse weather and improving world stock markets, as well as by farmers, who are holding crops for higher prices. May futures for corn delivery jumped $0.0525 (1.4 percent) to $3.8675 per bushel in Chicago.

Gold may rise to $1,162 per ounce, according to technical analysis, in case prices hold above $1,135 level. The precious metal advanced 3.6 percent this year. Gold traded at $1,136.45 by 10:44 in London.

Coffee may rise 21 percent in two months on lack of high quality supplies. The output in Columbia, the second largest grower in the world, fell to the lowest in 33 years because of adverse weather. Analysts predict that global demand will be about 131 million bags, while world production will be around 124 million bags in 2010. May futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.0515 (3.8 percent) to $1.319 per pound today in New York.

Corn and soybean prices advance with rising gasoline price, boosting the attractiveness of fuels produced from grain and oilseeds. Gasoline prices reached the highest level in five weeks, increasing demand for corn-based ethanol and biodiesel made from soybeans. May futures for corn delivery gained $0.11 (3 percent) to $3.8275 per bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. May futures for soybean delivery rose $0.145 (1.5 percent) to $9.69 per bushel.

Corn and soybeans gained today as farmers slowed sales after a price drop earlier this year. Drop in sales have led to decline of supplies for export and for producing fuel, animal feed and food. May futures for corn delivery added $0.0575 (1.5 percent) to $3.79 per bushel by 10:44 on the Chicago Board of Trade. March futures for soybean delivery rose $0.18 (1.9 percent) to $9.63 per bushel.

Copper rose in London on outlook for increasing demand in Japan, the fourth biggest buyer of the metal in the world. Japan’s gross domestic product grew 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter. Imports of the metal in China declined as much as 546,000 metric tons. Yet analysts say that this decline can be more than offset by rising global demand. Three-month delivery for copper rose $70 (1 percent) to $6,880 per ton by 16:52 on the London Metal Exchange.

Wheat futures fell in Paris on speculation that rising global stockpiles will decrease prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that global wheat stockpiles will increase from 164 million metric tons a year earlier to 195.9 million tons by the end of May as supply exceeds demand for a second year. Prices may yet go up with farmers’ reluctance to sell at current prices and good European Union exports. March delivery for milling wheat fell 0.4 percent to 125.25 euros ($170.35) per metric ton today on NYSE Liffe.

Wheat tumbled to a weekly low after U.S. producers increased sales of grain after a price rally. Earlier wheat slid on declining demand for inventories from the U.S. and growing global stockpiles. March futures for wheat delivery slid $0.075 (1.5 percent) to $4.8925 per bushel by 10:30 on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Cocoa advanced to the highest in five weeks in New York on speculation that global consumption may exceed world output. Holidays, like Valentine’s Day, create more demand for the chocolate ingredient. May futures for cocoa delivery added $58 (1.9 percent) to $3,098 per ton at 11:20 on ICE.

Gold rose to a weekly high in New York as economic recovery spurred appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Demand for the precious metal as a safe haven was also boosted after the European Union meeting hadn’t provide details about helping Greece with its debt crisis. April futures for gold delivery rose $18.50 (1.7 percent) to $1,094.80 per ounce as of 11:50 on NYMEX.

Coffee slid New York as the stronger dollar curbed demand for commodities as an alternative investment. The greenback gained for the first time this week versus a basket of six major currencies. March futures for Arabica-coffee delivery slid $0.006 (0.5 percent) to $1.298 per pound by 9:51 on ICE Futures U.S. in New York. Coffee price may tumble to $1.20 if the dollar rally will continue, yet the coffee may rise with deficit of high quality coffee and in case of dollar decline. The coffee price increased previous year because adverse weather harmed harvests in Brazil and Colombia.

Sugar rose on speculation that farmers in India will not significantly increase planting of cane. A less-than-expected increase in planting area can lead to import of sugar by India, supporting prices. March futures for raw-sugar delivery rose 1.8 percent to $0.2707 per pound on ICE.