Posts Tagged ‘zinc’
Sugar and Zinc Chart Patterns — September 26th 2009
On the daily September sugar futures chart a downward symmetrical triangle pattern has formed. As you can see on the image, price is near the apex of pattern. Breakout is possible here soon. As this is a continuation pattern and sloped downward, the breakout will most likely be bearish. Click to enlarge the image to a full-size screenshot:
A similar chart pattern has formed on the daily zinc chart. As you can see on the image, the price is rather far away from the apex of pattern. Breakout is possible in near future. Considering a long-term bullish trend on zinc, the breakout will most likely be upward. Click to enlarge the image to a full-size screenshot:
After Painful Slide, Commodities Languish
Aggressive
When the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Price Index rebounded 2.3 per cent yesterday, it was a welcome respite in a relentless rout that had knocked the commodity market to its lowest levels in nearly seven years. The bounce ended seven consecutive days of declines for the CRB index, during which time the benchmark had lost 11 per cent, relinquishing whatever modest gains it had mustered from its previous lows of early December.
Analysts say that while they don’t see much more room for most commodities to fall, the latest selloff is a signal that a second wave of worries has overtaken the commodity market. While the credit market crisis and hedge fund redemptions triggered the rapid exodus from commodities over the fall, now the deepening slowdown in physical demand for these products is entrenching the low- price environment.
“[Hedge fund liquidation] is becoming less and less of a factor. But the macro [economic] situation is just killing us,” said Edward Meir, commodity analyst at MF Global in Darien, Conn.
With most economists now seeing the economic slowdown lasting considerably longer than had been anticipated a few months ago, experts generally expect prices for many key commodities to drift sideways for much of this year. They said that while the low prices for some products will discourage production, that will be outweighed by the severe and lingering dearth in demand.
“In the near term, I don’t see a big break in the recent trend,” said Derek Burleton, senior economist at
“A more meaningful recovery in commodities may have to wait until 2011.”
Within that dim general view, there are varying degrees of pessimism and hope for the key commodities in the Canadian market:
OIL
The weak demand and high inventories for crude should keep prices in their recent range of roughly $35 (U.S.) to $50 a barrel for much of 2009. However, analysts say oil should get support from the fact that at current price levels, new supplies will slow to a trickle.
“When you’re down at these kinds of [price] levels, the only part of the world where you can bring on new projects is the Middle East,” said Patricia Mohr, commodity market specialist at Bank of Nova Scotia, who predicts that global oil production will actually fall this year.
As a result of this supply slowdown, she said, “once we see some glimmer of hope on the global economy, you’ll see prices come back quite quickly.”
Analysts are looking for prices to average $75 to $80 a barrel in 2010.
GOLD
Gold has bucked the downward trend in commodities, as investors have flocked to it as a safe haven from plunging financial markets and economic and political uncertainties.
While the continued
“But the main point is that gold seems to be able to maintain its value,” Ms. Mohr said, which should continue to attract investors to
COPPER
Copper is stuck in
The price is depressed as a result of sluggish demand, but it’s still high enough to keep most producers profitable, meaning little pressure to slow production.
“The big declines are probably behind us,” Mr. Meir said. However, he said, prices in 2009 “are going to be in a sideways pattern.”
However, Ms. Mohr said copper should benefit from government stimulus efforts aimed at expanding electricity infrastructure, particularly in China.
ALUMINUM
Unlike copper, analysts said aluminum prices have fallen considerably below most producers’ cash costs, which is triggering production cuts and killing new mining projects in their tracks.
“In aluminum, everyone is in the red. Everyone is struggling,” Mr. Meir said.
That suggests that even a modest recovery in demand could put upward pressure on what could become a very tight market on the supply side. Analysts said the situation isn’t that different in other base metals, such as zinc and nickel.
“I think all of them are oversold,” said Bart Melek, global commodity strategist at BMO Nesbitt Burns.
CANOLA
Ms. Mohr believes canola is poised to be a strong performer this year.
It’s an attractive product for Canadian farmers because of its traditionally strong profit margins, and could benefit from the threat of drought in some of China’s key
TD’s Mr. Burleton thinks agricultural commodities in general look promising. He added that drought worries in several parts of the world could also bode well for grain prices.
Zinc Consumption in Europe Fell to Lowest Level Since at Least 2005
Zinc and lead consumption in Europe and Japan fell to their lowest levels last year since at least 2005, according to the latest figures from the International Lead & Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). Consumption of refined zinc in Europe fell 232,000 tonnes — or 8.1% -to 2.62 million tonnes in 2008 from the previous year as the economic slowdown hit galvanizers and others that use zinc, the ILZSG’s figures show. Lead usage in Europe dropped 126,000 tonnes to 1.81 million tonnes, down 6.5%
Global lead usage rose 6.4%
Net imports of lead in concentrate rose for the sixth consecutive year to a record 795,000 tonnes, the ILZSG said. Demand for lead recovered partially in the USA, climbing 4%
World refined zinc production rose 2.9% to 11.68 million tonnes, exceeding demand by 195,000 tonnes. “After peaking in June, monthly refined zinc metal output fell off during November and December as a consequence of a number of closures and cutbacks,” the trade body said. Canadian producers cut 41,000 tonnes of zinc output, or 5.1%, to 761,000 tonnes last year, it said. Producers in Europe slashed output by 1.7% to 2.47 million tonnes as refiners in China increased production by 170,000 tonnes, or 4.5%, to 3.91 million tonnes. The country’s imports of zinc metal exceeded exports by 111,000 tonnes in 2008. This is a reversal of 2007, when China’s exports were 127,000 tonnes higher than imports, the ILZSG said.
Commodity Prices – August 27, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 827.60
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 13.54
Lead LME Cash $ 0.8689
Copper LME Cash $ 3.4587
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.8065
Nickel LME Spot $ 9.26
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.2356
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1440.00
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 294.50
Oil WTI Cushing $ 118.20
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $08.01
Commodity Prices – August 20, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 805.20
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 12.90
Lead LME Cash $ 0.8246
Copper LME Cash $ 3.4786
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.7679
Nickel LME Spot $ 8.87
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.2333
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1357.00
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 284.50
Oil WTI Cushing $ 116.70
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $07.72
Commodity Prices – August 1, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 912.40
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 17.61
Lead LME Cash $ 0.9775
Copper LME Cash $ 3.6719
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.8394
Nickel LME Spot $ 8.23
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.3027
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1666.50
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 364.50
Oil WTI Cushing $ 127.90
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $09.26
Commodity Prices – July 31, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 914.80
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 17.62
Lead LME Cash $ 1.0111
Copper LME Cash $ 3.7467
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.8646
Nickel LME Spot $ 8.45
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.3281
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1755.00
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 381.50
Oil WTI Cushing $ 124.40
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $09.00
Commodity Prices – July 30, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 897.90
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 17.10
Lead LME Cash $ 1.0161
Copper LME Cash $ 3.6515
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.8448
Nickel LME Spot $ 8.26
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.3177
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1724.00
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 371.50
Oil WTI Cushing $ 123.20
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $09.17
Commodity Prices – July 25, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 920.30
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 17.19
Lead LME Cash $ 0.9707
Copper LME Cash $ 3.7009
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.8278
Nickel LME Spot $ 8.26
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.3186
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1726.00
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 383.00
Oil WTI Cushing $ 123.60
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $09.69
Commodity Prices – July 24, 2008
Gold N.Y. Spot $ 918.65
Silver N.Y. Spot $ 17.16
Lead LME Cash $ 0.9888
Copper LME Cash $ 3.7460
Zinc LME Cash $ 0.8578
Nickel LME Spot $ 8.62
Aluminum LME Spot $ 1.3318
Platinum N.Y. Spot $ 1734.00
Palladium N.Y Spot $ 386.50
Oil WTI Cushing $ 124.60
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)($/MMBtu) $09.85
USD-AUD $ 1.0421
AUD-USD $ 0.9596
CAD-USD $ 0.9913
USD-CAD $ 1.0088
EUR-USD $ 1.5672
